Still plenty of post-election news to digest in our town.

So this special correspondents edition of Off the Record.

Thanks for tuning in.

On the Rundown.

Democrats underperform in the state of Michigan.

The race for governor begins t take shape, believe it or not.

And around the table, Craig Mauger, Claire Hendrickson, Simon Schuster and Chad Livengood sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in part by Bellwethe public relations, a full service strategic communication agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

Learn more at Bellwetherpr.com And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

All right.

Thank you very much for tuning in for off the record.

Still lots of stuff to digest from what happened last week.

I want you to give me a couple of words to describe the governor's reaction to what happened last Tuesday.

Surprising.

Surprising in what regard?

I was not what I was expecting.

Governor Whitmer to say.

I have the exact same reaction I was going to use Surprising as well.

You're seeing Democratic governors talking about Trump proofing their states.

She's talking about shared priorities.

I see the same vote boat, but at the same time, I think it's kind of par for the course for her.

I thin she probably saw some of the tea leaves developing early and some of the problems.

It was tepid and non-confrontational.

You like that or not?

I think your years are better.

Yes.

Why?

Well, she has a history with Trump, right?

Yes, exactly.

And so she's probably mindful of that.

But, you know, she is governing a state that voted for Trump.

This is a very different set of political calculations than the blue state governors.

Yeah.

And I mean, one of her one of her political mantras I think maybe the foremost one is I'm willing to wor with anybody to get things done.

And so, I mean, if you're going to stick with that and practice what you preach, you know, she's sort of boxed in rhetorically.

But it als it points to a Democratic Party that I think does not know where to go right now.

In search of themselves.

What powered the Democrati Party to victories after 2016?

It was this resistance movement, people going out in the streets, people being out to oppose Trump.

It powered this party to massive victories in 2018, 2020, and 2022.

And now you have one of the leading governors of a battleground stat kind of sitting back and saying, well let's try to work with the guy.

And you've got other Democratic governors, Pritzker in Illinois.

saying, let's go to war with this guy and let's prepare for this.

And it's fascinating.

she went to war already.

I mean, to Craig's point and in she she won election on that women's movement that came out of 2017.

And so she's got to find a new a new, you know, beat to to to march to now.

I actually think she thinks that she might be able to weasel her way into the Oval Office and actually establish a relationship.

Or is that too far fetched?

No one weasel their way into the Oval Office.

And so she's going to have to find a new way to go at in the latter with this guy.

And and so, you know, she also has some things that she wants right now.

She wants big, major federal incentives for semiconductor plants.

And and and probably doesn't want some of these EV plant projects to go up in smoke.

And so she's trying to find a way to basically let's let's get him on board.

Maybe he gets some credit.

He can say, I brought manufacturing job back to Michigan and then she.

Can win that 7500 bucks.

The tax credit, that that's a nonstarter for her.

Well, it's yeah, but that's not that's not a done deal yet.

I mean, I wouldn't totally white wave that off because there's a lot of union jobs that are tied, their $7500 tax credit.

That's what it was all designed for.

And if those if those jobs start disappearing, Trump will hear it and feel it.

And and people in marginal seats like John James, Congressman Macomb County will definitely feel it.

You know, I.

Think that there' a lot of strategy at play here.

And the thing that's really working in Whitmer's favor right now is that the big tentpoles of the domestic policy agenda that Biden and Trump both share are re-industrialization.

And so obviously their vision for how they're going to go about that in the sectors that they want to boost are substantially different.

But if Whitmer can you know, maybe not necessarily through genuflection, but persuasion sort of gets the Trump administration towards those priorities and just not even necessarily endorse them, but at least just abide them, then, you know, there's sort of a trajectory that can be maintained.

She i I mean, she's staking her entire second term on economic development.

And if Donald Trump uses his, you know, this two years that they're going to share when they're both in power, if he starts using those two years to say, I'm going to block all these projects, going to Michigan, because Governor Whitmer said something in the press that made me upset, and that's going to be devastating for Whitmer's final two years in office.

So, I mean, I think she's kind of in a difficult spot.

Also will be devastating for J.D.

Vance's presidential campaign because if she if he does block a bunch of major manufacturing development, then there's no comeback for J.D.

Vance to talk about in two years when he tries to run for president.

Presumably four years.

Yeah, four.

Years.

Let's talk about the thing that hasn't been mentioned yet, which is as to Craig's point, a lot of the sort of Trump resistance was animated by a sort of new energ and the women's rights movement.

You know, abortion has been a huge issue for Whitmer.

She's a national voice on that.

A lot of dems thought this year was going to b a repeat of 2022 when abortion was such a strong issue for them that helped win elections.

This time, we did see voter in some states passing abortion rights measures, but also voting for Trump.

And so they were able to disentangle that from the Republican and this issue.

I completely agree with what Clara said, and that, well, has definitely run dry.

But I think if you zoom out even further, I think the big bet the Democrats had is that 2020 was sort of a repudiation of Trump, that it was, you know, an enduring repudiation of him and that this is going to be a return to form and sort of normal politics, quote unquote.

But I mean, 2024 show that voters have not enduringly repudiated him and that they're that the realignment that he suffered in 2016 has continued and that this is the new normal that Gretchen Whitmer has to live in.

Example of where this governor is, was during the little scrum yesterday.

As she's walking off into the sunset, somebody asked the question, what do you think about the AG appointment?

What do you think?

She said, I'll work with anybody who's confirmed you like that.

Talk about a PC response.

No, there was there was a bomb ready to be tossed and she didn't.

Okay.

She's an attorney.

She's got to be obviousl concerned, but she punted on it.

This is part of her strategy.

There is nothing she does is is it's all calculated.

Does it b or anything in the White House?

I mean, I think that's the attempt she's trying to make.

I'd hate to guess on that, because this is the whole strategy that she seems to be playing.

But will this strategy hold?

I mean, there were times in 2020 during COVID where she was trying to work with the Trump administration and she would say positive things about what the Trump administration was doing.

And then the next day she would turn around and bash them during a press conference.

So, I mean, I don't know if we can say that this is the full tack that she's going to go.

She might say something tomorrow that is totally different than what.

She did say in the post-election.

I've worked with them before.

I can work with them again.

Didn't she say I thought that was.

Interesting and it didn't seem to go very well when she was working with them before in 2020.

You know, I'm.

Mike Shirkey would like a word.

Mike Shirkey, let's never mind.

How did how did how did the Democrats underperform in our state when everything was teed up, the abortion issue, the female issue was going to turn out in large numbers and they got squat.

I mean, it was an election about Joe Biden.

People were very frustrated with Joe Biden's handling of the economy.

And Kamala Harris made a decision when she got in the race that she was not going to differentiate herself from Joe Biden at all.

I mean, she was.

She it was the wrong decision.

She could have come out initially and said, here are four policy issues that I'm going to be differen than the current president on.

Lay those out.

Run on those.

When you get asked the question, you have an answer.

She made a decision to g a different way and double down on everything Biden has done and all of the polling, all of the polling that our media outlet and others had done this year showed that peopl were not happy with Joe Biden.

And we're actually furious with the way he was leading the country.

Given the showin that Mr. Trump had in Michigan.

Would it have made any difference if he was bringing all of these people out that weren't voting before?

I don't think that would have counteracted that.

A lot of the die was cast.

Yeah.

Early iin this election.

I mean, in inflation, which i even though inflation had gone down the last 12 months, the damage had been done.

These certain, you know, dail goods were 20% higher than they were at the beginning o of of the Biden administration.

And there was no way for them to sort of change that, you know, real narrative in people's wallets.

Are you saying Mr. Livengood that regardless of who the D candidate was, they would have lost.

Probably.

Well, you sure you want to stick to that?

Yeah.

All right.

I mean, there was only the polling was showing this the polling was showing problems with Biden.

They also said the democracy thing all of a sudden was the number one issue.

But that was with people who I think were already voting Democratic.

Yeah, I mean I think that was the difference between these two candidates in the two campaigns.

Very smartly, Donald Trump's campaign said we're going to focus wholly on the persuadable voters.

The people in this town said that will never work.

You know, people had.

Doubts about the low propensity voter thing, but that was their strategy.

And you know what?

It worked.

And meanwhile, the Democrats, you can talk to people who worked on the campaign and they will tell you the party was focused on turning out the base voters.

They were not doing the persuadable doors.

They weren't trying to win over any Republican voters at the doors.

They were trying to turn out their voters.

And it was not enough in this election.

They miscalculated it seems.

You never win with your base.

It's sort of ironic how much that's an inverse of sort of what happened in 2020.

I think Trump relied on base turnout.

And then Biden's campaign really looked on persuasion and outrage towards his handling of the pandemic to get voters out.

But you look at what Trump was able to do electorall through low propensity voters, through increasing his base among these minority groups.

It's a 150,000 vote increase ove what he was able to do in 2020.

And that's huge.

So this this race throughout, it just looked and smelled and felt like 2016 all over again.

The difference was in 2016, 74,000 people didn't vote for president in this race.

86,00 people only voted for president and then they turned their back else.

And that's why that's why Mike Rogers lost there, couldn't get a coattails win because of all these people just filled out one bubble, put them put the ballot in the machine and that to Craig's point is why low propensity voter was carried the day.

Well, let's pick up on that because Mr. Rogers finished if the numbers 105,000 votes behind Trump now, wouldn't you think I vote for the president and the next vote is for the US Senate wouldn't go to the R. I mean, I actually think that this is probably more a stor about Elissa Slotkin's strength as a candidate.

And I mean, she's a formidable fundraiser, really.

She's won really tough races.

I think it's mayb less about Mike Rogers weakness as a candidate.

I was told that the conservative didn't like Mike Rogers, tha he was a Liz Cheney Republican.

Well, I mean, I kind of kind of used the same camp.

Yeah.

I mean, that was the history that he was battling.

But this was a nationalized election.

And I think the Biden and the Biden Trum and then Harris Trump, that was that was dominating everything.

And we were hearing at the news from from people at some polling places across the state who were saying that voters were comin in, marking Trump and leaving.

I don't think that's necessarily a question of do these people know what's going on in the Senate race?

I think it's a question o they were being driven by Trump and by a frustration with what was happening in the White House and they were coming out to vote on that race.

And I don't think there was a connection made by the Rogers campaign between the frustration peopl were feeling about the economy at the presidential level.

He wasn't able to draw that down into the Senate race successfully.

I don't think, you know, if I'm a Republican strategis right now working in Michigan, I think the thing that's keeping me up at night is the sustainability of Trump's electoral coalition.

I mean, forget the Senate races look even like to the very bottom of the ballot in Michigan, Suprem Court, Democrats had about 1.2 Republican Supreme Cour nominees and about 1.2 million fewer votes than the Democratic nominees, which is just shows the sort of Gulf in awareness that Republican aligned voters had or even just the lack of interest that they had in these really significant races in Michigan.

But it doesn't mean it's always key to point out on the it does not mention what party you are on the ballot, but that means that you have to have the funding and the interest and the awareness for voters to know who to go to.

And the funding was nearly 9 to 1.

When you look at inside and outside spending, the Republicans didn't really contest those races, right?

No.

so all of you have been writing about the race for governor.

How dare you do that in.

I can hear people at home going listen Skubick we just finished one election but we got to go to the next one because of what Mike Duggan did this week.

Yes, Mike Duggan The mayor of Detroit decided not to run for a fourth term.

Nobody surprised by that?

Not really, no.

But he didn't.

What he did left open was whether he's going to run for governor.

And he has not made a declaration on that.

Or he didn't have to.

He didn't have to.

No, no, he he likes to he likes to draw things out Like I know an experience politician.

So he's doing it behind the scenes.

Maybe.

No, no, no Chad-a-roo.

No, no.

This is not a maybe issue I have too many people Craig and I differ on this a little bit.

Well, let's let's go.

Craig has actually some evidence about what's wrong with it with the early Duggan campaign.

What's he missing right now?

I mean, I think he's in a difficult spot in this race just by the makeup of th Democratic primary electorate.

I mean, that's that's, I think something people have to watch who are the Democratic primary voters now?

It's not the same as a general electorate.

Electorate.

It's not the same.

These are different people.

Female candidates have done extremely well in Michigan in Democratic primaries.

You've got a female candidate who's known very heavily statewide, who's sitting i the secretary of state's office, who's probably watching what Mike Duggan's doing.

And also a book written a book that's going to come out, Jocelyn Benson is, you know could also jump into this race and this Duggan/Benson.

I mean, this is going to be.

Wait a minute she's already in the race.

Okay?

I mean.

Did she announce that to you?

She's already off the diving board.

She's at the deep end of the pool.

Do you agree?

And I mean, I think that the writing's more or less on the wall at this point.

And I think the important thing to note is that highly engaged Democratic primary voters are really interested in this idea of protecting democracy, of maintaining democratic institutions, and there are a few, you know, nonfederal figures in the United States that are are more prominent in this issue than Jocelyn Benson.

And what was the other biggest issue for Democrati primary voters, abortion rights?

And who's going to speak to that issue more clearly?

Jocelyn Benson or Mike Duggan?

And that's the situation Duggan finds himself in.

He's got to figure out how to channel this.

The frustration about the economy, the future of the Democratic Party, and show that he is the person that's going to speak to that future, not Jocelyn Benson.

Rememeber where he learned this game at the need of a guy named Ed McNamara.

That's right.

Who knew a thing or two about politics.

Both the.

But there was old machine Democratic politics and it's different now.

It is way different.

And whether he can go in and speak to younger generations really remains to be seen.

Convincing older Detroiters to vote for you.

Write your name on a piece of paper in 2013, the most improbable write-in campaign ever where people were spelling Duggan and Dugan doing in all sorts of different versions.

And and even this white guy, I mean, they literally people wrote that in too.

I mean, this guy ha has has shown he has many lives.

But but yes, he can go raise money from the swells in the points and the Bloomfield's.

But can he actually use that entrance to get votes from a younger generation of voters?

This is another thing we argue about sometimes the fundraising for a candidate for governor, Governor now in a Democratic primary is totally different than it was ten years ago.

It used to be, you know, rich people in Michigan, you know, labor groups, you go out and get those people to donat and you're you're ready to go.

That's not how it works.

Now, you've got to have a presence on MSNBC, CNN.

You've got to have this massive small donor base across the country of people writing you checks of $5 and $10.

And Dugga does not have that to the degree that Jocelyn Benson has that right now.

And that's somethin he's going to have to get over.

I think.

Where do we wait?

Clara has been strangely silent here.

I well, I don't know if I'm ready to start covering another election.

You know, we're quick to move on here.

But w got 10 minutes to finish, please It's going to be, I think, a very, very crowded venue.

We've mentioned Duggan.

We mentioned Benson.

Gilchris might be interested in the job.

There are questions about McMorrow's path moving forward.

So it's going to be a very crowded field of potentially interested candidates and we haven't really talked about the Republican sid is going to look like as well.

But let's talk about wha I'm affectionately referring to is the governor's open seat curse, which is Michigan voters have a habit, which we're about to describe right here.

There is a distinct and historic pattern that Michigan voters have followed for the last five decades.

They vote for one party or the other for governor.

And then eight years later, they turn around and switch to the other party It would appear.

That way, and.

It may wel be that that will happen again.

If, for example, former Republican Governor Bill Milliken left office and Michigan voters proceeded to elect a new Democratic governor, Jim Blanchard.

Republican Governor John Engler served 12 years, but then was replaced by Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm.

And the same thing happened with Rick Snyder, replaced by Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

So if this pattern continues, it will be the Republicans turn to be governor in two years.

Give the consistency of that pattern, why one would almost think that the Democrats ought to just concede the election and in 2026.

So obviously, Mr. Porn does not believe that will happen, but he does see a possible break in this pattern depending on how well the new president is doing and how much anger he might stir up in the Michigan electorate.

And that could impact the race for governor and help the Democrats.

Those are some of the things that could cause an impact on the Michigan governor's race, as well as.

How.

The Republican candidates for governor support or oppose.

The actions of President Trump.

So Michigan voters will decide, continue with the curse of change and move to a Republica governor, or based on what Mr. Trump is doing, they might kill the curse and vote for another D. You' nodding your head there Maug.

I mean, that was interesting.

I can say the dynamics are different than they were, you know, eight years ago.

They will be in 2026 because, I mean, what the Democrats do have going for them is now we have divide government at the state level.

I mean, the Republicans have the state House.

The Republicans are also going to hold the White House.

So if voters are going to sit there and only blame the Democrats, it seems less likely than it may have a month ago.

So if you're a Democrat, that is probably a reason to be somewhat optimistic.

There's usually a backlash against the party in the White House.

There's also a trend of that.

Donald Trump enters the Michigan political arena.

The question that Bernie raised, what do the Republican candidates do?

Do they snuggle u to Donald Trump or do they not?

Yeah, absolutely.

Because they have to have that.

They have to have that endorsement.

You can't win a primary.

What if it's one of his numbers two years out or so in the tank in Michigan that it's a liability?

Yeah, well, I mean, this is where all of this is goin to hinge when you look at like where outsider candidates have really performed well.

You go back to the 2010 primary, right?

We're in the midst of a recession.

And you see this outside candidate who wasn't necessarily an establishment pick, someone who expected to do well in Rick Snyder coming to the forefront and ultimately win that election.

I think, you know, if you look at the Democratic primary, if the economy's really doing poorly in, you know, almost two years from now, you're going to see Mike Duggan really seize that moment.

And Republicans, it's going to be more difficult for them because this is going to be a midterm where they have a Republican in the White House.

For Mr. Duggan the more the merrier.

Get everybody you want to run for governor, yeah, come on, get in.

Get in.

Yeah, I mean, it's possible.

I mean.

How does he play in out state Michigan?

What we don't know.

I mean, that's where he's got a rainse his name.

Hes' not Coleman Young.

Okay.

Coleman Young was was toxic in out state Michigan Duggan is not in the same boat.

Well, when Duggann does go around the state every once in a while and pick up like, you know, you spoke.

Go to Ontanagon and se if they know who Mike Duggan is.

The Rotary Club in Hart or something like that.

And and you pick up.

They're closed by the way.

People are interested i because there's a lot of people that live out state that either they were born in Detroit or their parents lived in Detroit.

Of course they left because of all the different strife and it's usually racial, but they have fond memories.

And so when they hea great comeback story of Detroit, which Mike Dugga has a whole PowerPoint on you.

You said, show it.

The more candidates the more the merrier for Duggan.

I mean, I think one nam that has not been mentioned here that will be an X factor in this race is Chris Swanson, the Genesee County sheriff.

I mean, this.

Is X, Y and Z factor.

He is somebody that is I would not discount hi in his ability to get out there in the media and raise attention to to who he is.

And I think he'll be playing for a lot of the same voters that Mike Duggan's playing for.

I mean, he's effectively the county executive, you know, in Genesee County and he's got billboards on 75.

Welcome to Genesee County.

I'm Chris Swanson.

I mean, it's it's really effective.

I mean, he's really in uniform.

He's not not in that one.

But but yeah, then he shows up at the D at the Democrati National Convention in uniform and gives a speech and gave a speech.

And and so yeah he's.

You know what?

He's you're not a slouch.

If you could get a spot on that podium.

Now he's pretty shameless about it.

So let's, let's, let's as what does Governor Whitmer do to she sit on the sideline and let this ferment on its own, or does she wade into it group?

Ms. Hendrickson ponders the question.

I mean, what would the incentive be for her to meddle in any sort of Democratic Party and sort of put her thumb on the scale and say, I want this candidate?

I mean, she may do tha behind the scenes and sort of, you know, cultivate that really, she says.

Behind the scenes will be out in the public.

I could see her I could see her pulling more of a Senator Stabenow approach and just sort of staying out of the Democratic primary.

And isn't there a traditio in our state that the governor automatically says, you know Milliken said, Berkley's my guy, Rick Snyder said Brian Calley is my guy.

John Engle said, Dick Posthumus is my guy.

I mean.

There's tradition, right?

And then there's political shrewdness.

These are two different things.

And, you know, I think when you have to look at electability between some of these candidates, it's very varied.

There's going to be a lot of different conditions that play the worst.

The economy is doing, the better Mike Duggan is going to be doing.

And I don't necessarily see any advantage to her, especially if there's 2028 aspirations on the horizon.

Let's go around the table.

Does she stay in or out?

I think she I think at least openly and what we see, she will stay out of this.

Will she work behind the scenes?

I think that's very unlikely.

I mean, this is a wild prediction to make.

Notice what Jocelyn Benso has been saying so far, though, about her campaign.

She has been saying, I've improved the secretary of state's offices.

Now let's improve all of state government.

That seems to clash with Governor Whitmer.

Right.

A little bit.

I mean is that a little bit of a dig?

Am I wrong on that?

Well, no.

If you say something, it needs to improve.

Obviously, it hasn't been.

You know what I'm saying?

You.

Yeah, I'm starting that out there.

I think she stays out.

Yeah.

I think Whitmer stays out.

I think she stays out.

If Garlin Gilchrist decides to run for mayor, she will get involved in that which would keep which would keep Garlin out of the out of this race.

Or the 13th congressional race.

So somebody tries to be about lame duck.

How's it going so far?

Oh, messy.

Messy.

A little messy.

Yeah.

Some attendance issues and frustrations about economic development bills really being prioritized after Trump's victory and all of these Democratic priorities that were saved until the last minute, which isn't surprising.

I mean there are some things that are, you know, politically fraugh that you don't want to take on right before an election.

But it's a long list of thing that Democrats want to get done.

And you have at least one Democratic lawmaker saying, you know, if my priorities aren't moved on, I'm not going to show up.

With such a long list that they're, again, taking hunting season off.

That's that's what I was thinking about.

I mean, there there are going to be certain lawmakers, they're going to be out hunting for deer.

I think the Democratic leadership are going to be hunting for a plan for what they're trying to do in lame duck because.

Why don't have one?

I. I I'm the wrong person to ask.

I mean, it does not seem like they have a list of things that, hey, we're going to check through this, this and this.

You know, we've covered the Republican lam duck sessions that have happened recently as soon as the election was over.

All right.

Time to turn to these 30 things that we're going to get done before we leave.

Simon, I think we're seeing this is the fraying of the Democratic coalition.

We've seen the little teases, little nibbles at this fraying like, you know, throughout their tenure.

But now I think the frustration that we're seeing from some more progressive members who want to look at the things that ailed the Democrats in the 2024 election, you know, issues that directl addressed working class workers.

Remember, in August 2023 when Whitmer said she wanted paid family medical leave, Yo know, whatever happened to that?

Or how about no-fault reform?

it's it's it's a tight rope to walk there.

But probably, you know, we we've we will see, though, this is going to be a lame, lame duck.

There's either two lame ducks who's either really lame or there's this insane.

And and and I would I would probably sa that this ends up being insane.

All right, let's hold that tape and see if you're right.

Thank you all for showing up.

We appreciate it.

Good show, guys.

See you next week.

For more off the record, please come back.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in part by Bellwether public relations, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

Learn more at bellwetherpr.com For more off the record, visit WKAR.org Michigan public television stations have contributed to the production costs of off the record.