A bi news week in our town this week, so a special correspondents edition of Off the Record is up next with Kyle Melinn, Jordyn Hermani, Emily Lawler, and Rick Pluta.

The first U.S. Senate debate, a debrief and a bipartisan effort on election security.

Sit down with us as we get the inside out.

Off the Record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible, in part, by Martin Waymire, a full servic strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at MartinWaymire.com.

And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Here we go.

Welcome back.

We're having fun this morning.

Are we in Studio C Friday morning , Off the Record, same as usual, with lots of news going on and there was a U.S. Senate debate Let's fact check what went on.

By the end of the debate, the studio was overflowing with allegations he alleging some of her answers were I think it's disingenuous and certainly deceptive.

She alleging he got some issues wrong.

Well, in Congress.

It's not about what he's going to do.

It's what about he's already done.

Mr. Rogers asserts that her support of the Bide federal stimulus relief package, post-COVID, boosted inflation, which is true.

But the more significant contributor to inflation, post-COVID, was supply chain disruptions.

Mr. Rogers alleges that FEMA diverted disaster relief dollars elsewhere.

Diverting that money for Illegals coming across the border.

Is is an absolute nonstarter for me.

But the FEMA rules do not allow disaster relief for other services.

He also accused her of supporting Mr. Biden's policies, quote, 100% of the time.

She asserts she voted against the administration, more than 97% than the other Democrats in the House.

However, a check of her votin record in 2122 shows her backing the president 100% of the time, according to Bridge.

Mrs. Slotkin accuses her opponent of supporting numerous anti-abortion measures while he was in Congress.

He voted for every single ban, every restriction, every bill that came across his desk.

He wants the state to make abortion decisions now.

And regarding Michigan's 2022 vote to legalize abortions here, he adds, I will do nothing.

When I go back to Washington, D.C., to do anything that would change.

What the Michigan Constitution... he accuses her of signing a secret document regarding a proposed Chinese EV battery in Big Rapids with alleged ties to the Communist Party.

I've never signed an NDA with any Chinese government.

The record shows she did sign local project nondisclosure agreements, but none of those mentioned the Chinese Goshen plant.

The two sides declared victory and they're now preparing for their final TV debate in Detroit later this month.

So, Emily, did you stay awake?

Of course.

And they always declare victory downtime every time.

That's what I would do.

It was their to tell them they're wrong, right?

Right.

But no, what I saw on that stage was two really qualified candidates.

I think they both have, you know, strong backgrounds, particularly in national security.

And I think they were going at each other.

It's October.

We should expect a lot to be flying and a lot was flying in terms of accusation.

Ricky any home runs?

Uh.

No.

I mean it was sort of balanced stuff.

It seemed like, you know, Mik Rogers in particular started out being, you know, cautious abou going too negative too quickly.

But then, you know, once you know, once it got rolling, then by the end of it, it was, you know, a lot of a lot of finger pointing and here's how you did this.

And I guess they stayed within the the the narrow rang of what you could call factual.

But certainly there was a lot of attempts to, you know, make some some stretches.

I think the Goshen one, you know, in particular that with, you know, both of them that you know, Mike Roger saying that you signed an NDA, which was not exactly true, and her saying, you know, there were no NDAs signed with China, but that's not the same as there not being any NDAs.

Well, before we go on Lauren Gibbons did a great job on fact checking that thing I want to give her credit for that.

If there was no home runs, any ground rule doubles?

I mean, I whenever these debates come up, I'm just always thinking of the fact of what is the average voter going to think or see about this.

And I have heard nothing, frankly.

I've heard, Crickets?

Pretty much.

And so, you know, that's I think what the campaign should be a little more focused on righ now is the fact that, you know, if you are having all of these accusations, all of these finger pointing, all this, whatever, you know are the voters even listening?

And is this actually going to move the needle?

Because polling suggests that, you know, they're in a pretty statistical dead heat right here.

And they have been for for some time now.

Go ahead sorry.

Well the 1.7 million people are supposedly, according to one website, hit and watch the thing.

Now, if they were doin something else at the same time.

Well if they stayed the whole time.

You know that in this da and age, there's a lot competing for people's attention.

And I don't know how high a U.S. Senate debate is going to rank for a lot of folks.

People watch them.

But, you know, I mean, typically with with with some very, very notable exceptions, you know, candidates don't really win debates so much as they survive them or they lose them.

And the loss is that viral moment.

I think, in this one, though.

I think both candidates did extremely well.

I can't remember a better debate with Michigan people.

I thought this debate was more exciting than the VP debate.

I thought it was more substantive than the presidential debate.

I thought they both looked better than actually any of the four that I just mentioned.

I felt like if you watched this debate and you liked Slotkin and you liked Rogers, you came away thinking, God, I'm so glad I like this person because they excelled.

I thought it was a top tier debate.

I thought they both did well.

They were sharp, they were quick.

It was fast paced, that hour moved and I wanted more which I can't say the same for with the VP debate and the presidential debate.

Well, it's sort of like watching Off the Record.

I don't... Oh yeah, very much like so.

Yeah.

But did anybody change their mind?

You're absolutely right.

This debates reinforc your good guy or bad guy or good woman, bad woman.

You know, I'm not sure anybody would have changed their mind based off watching that, but I could see people making up their mind.

If you're sort of on the bubble and you're sort of thinking, I don't really know, like Elissa Slotkin and Mike Rogers, you know, I've heard both those names.

Maybe I've even voted for both those names in the past, depending on where you live in the state.

I can see you having watched that and that having made your decision a little bit easier.

Well if the polling then is correct for seven or eight point lead has evaporated.

I am hesitant to believe that that's the case.

I mean, has it gotten smaller?

More than likely, yes.

I mean, I do believe that we are at a closer dead heat race.

I mean, we're one of three toss up Senate races in the whole country, and we've been that way this entire time.

So do I believe that lead has gotten smaller?

Yes.

Do I believe that it is you know, evaporated completely?

I'm not so certain.

Elissa Slotkin has a lot more recent of a track record, which, you know, gives her a lot of gives a lot of ammunition to Mike Rogers against her.

It's been a long time for Rogers.

People are a little more familiar with Slotkin.

It's not really all that surprising to me.

You know, a couple more people who recognize her.

You know, seven out of the last U.S. Senate elections have been won by a Democrat.

So you would think that she would have the edge going in.

But I will say the Republicans and their supporters have been putting i a lot of money into this race.

20 million the last week.

Yeah, in the most recent, I looked at ad impact yesterday night and it was 83 million for Pro Slotkin and 80 million for Rogers.

I don't think.

That's a tie game We didn't really think that was going to happen but the spending is there and the ads for Rogers are very good.

It could be a dead heat if the national race here in Michigan is a dead heat.

This one could be as well.

I was surprised that she did not do an compare and contrast on which is the real Mike Roger when it comes to Donald Trump.

His name was never mentioned in this debate.

He was I was for Donald Trump before I was against him.

Isn't that an issue to be exploited for Trump?

People who are saying, wait a minute, this guy is not a Trumper.

And I would submit that the debate was a pretty first for both candidates, was a pretty disciplined operation, that they came in with some specific messages that they wanted to deliver.

You know, visa vie you know, some some oppositional messaging.

But like I think everyone said that for some people, you know, the debate is doing your due diligence to, you know, feel like you've you've examined, you know both the candidates, the records compared and contrast and all of that.

But, you know, most o this is going to be an ad war.

And that's really the place where, you know, you can do, you know, the side by side, the appearances together.

And I think that that's where you'll see more.

So inother words, you don't like my idea that she should have brought up Trump?

I just don't know that it would have made that big of a difference.

It just wasn't on the menu.

I mean, maybe we'll see that for the X, Y, Z debate.

She was more intereste in making sure people knew that she he could not have voted on Proposal three because he was in Florida.

We got that message down pat and maybe sh she moves on to Trump next time.

But it maybe is connecting them to Trump a bad thing?

I mean, if the polls are close right now, maybe that's not necessarily a bad thing.

I think this is a race that's almost unusual in today's election landscap where both candidates are trying to convince people to vote for them.

And I know that sounds silly but a lot of campaigns right now run on turning out your base, too.

They're not focused on courting, courting people or winning them over with your ideas.

And this is sort of an ol school campaign in that regard.

It's a really good point.

Well, that's what makes me wonder, too.

You know, when when after the VP debate is a bit of a snoozer, that may have been a lot of people locked out of it saying, wow, that was really civil, like civil to the point of almost being boring.

And I do wonder.

Well, no, honestly, though, I mean, you think about the last eight years in what a how hectic it's been.

There hasn't been one of those.

Right.

And so you I do honestly wonder, too, if that's you know, a part of this equation here is them trying to avoid the whole mudslinging bringing themselves into you know, he said she said Donal Trump, Kamala Harris, blah blah.

But let's just focus o the merits of these candidates.

And it seems that both of them are on that same page.

All right.

So let' turn to the presidential race, still tight, according to the Detroit News and WDIV and also the university out on the East Coast tied.

Any surprise there?

Well, we had a we had it too with Mitchell, Mitchell's story as well.

Sorry apologize for that.

That's okay.

Just I guess we're just so spli down the middle in this state.

And I guess you're seeing tha also in the battleground states as well Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

And it's coming down to the wire.

Well what co you all think of Mr. Trump's strategy of trying to find Republicans who are asleep and not voting and waking them up and getting to the polls rather than pivoting to get independent voters?

Look, he's had some success i getting people out to the polls.

He wouldn't normally come to the polls.

That's how he won in 2016.

I think the third time around, that's a harder and harder case to make.

Those people have turned out for him in 2016 and many in 2020.

I just think you get sort of diminishing returns if you keep pursuing that same strategy.

Also, and I've not seen a lot of evidence that that's changed is before Biden dropped out.

Most of the public opinio research that I'm aware of had Trump kind of plateauing in terms of public support.

And so, I mean, reall the ballgame for the Republicans and the Trump campaig was exactly that voter turnout, more supporter turnout.

Those who haven't voted.

That's the key.

That's the that's who he's going after.

You get them motivated.

Okay.

But there's a difference between the voters who haven't voted or haven't voted yet versus the undecided on which candidate they want to vote for.

And the Republican strategy has been getting more Republicans out to vote.

Or or getting people out who haven't voted in a long, long time and convincing them that Trump's their guy.

And so one of the big thing that actually jumped out to me about tha polling is it was something like almost a third of the Michigan residents that were polled said they had little to no confidenc in the election system itself.

And so you have to wonder to you're trying to reach out to all these people who don't vote, who haven't voted, who might have stayed away from the party a little bit.

But for the last several years, all you've done is sown distrust in an election system.

If I'm somebody who genuinely believes that, why would I go out to vote?

Why would I send in my mail in ballot?

Why wouldn't I think, well, this party's going to cheat, that party's going to cheat because my guy said they're going to cheat.

What incentive are you giving voters to turn out, frankly?

Brilliant leads me into my next soundbite.

Watch this boys and girls.

Well, some politicians argue that elections in Michigan can be rigged.

77% of Michigan voters disagree.

They are confident about th integrity of Michigan elections.

61% of Mr. Trump's Michigan supporters say they do have confidence in the process.

But one out of four 25% of Mr. Trump's voters do not.

However, veteran Michigan pollster Richard Czuba found that when voters are tol there are 12 security measures now in place, including video cameras at every drop bo for votes, the confidence level across the state skyrockets, including Mr. Trump's troops.

All 12 increase the confidence of voters by 75% or more.

All 12 actions.

And I said earlier.

How the.

Trump voters were.

Particularly.

Lack confidence.

Look at their numbers.

They're enormous.

Nearly everyone is above, you know, 84, 82, 85% most in the nineties.

Increase in confidence.

That is good news for two former Michigan governors and other officials who are part of the Democracy Defense Project, hoping to reassure citizens that voting in Michigan is on the up and up.

But we're committed to helping make sure in our state people trust our voting and support our local people who are working in all these elections.

And so we can get the accurate, honorable count.

Former Republican Governo John Engler says the intent here is to avoid some of the conspiracy theories that are out there in social media.

The protections that would stop one who's not entitled to stop them from voting an to make sure that once the votes are cast, they're counted appropriately and accurately.

Meanwhile, on the election integrity front, some Republicans are suing Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson for advising local clerks that a person who has never resided in Michigan can still vote here if their spouse or parent does live here.

The Republican plaintiffs argue that is simply unconstitutional.

But the good news is if the polling data is correct, a whole bunch of Michigan voters believe that state and loca officials are doing all they can to run a fair election to prevent any post-election rigged election charges.

Did you believe that the Trump voters once told that there are safeguards are now on board?

Yes.

Yeah, I do, because most Trump people who believe that the election was stolen or rigged don't know why it was rigged or stolen.

They don't know specifically what happened.

They may have conspiracy theories rolling around in their head but they don't know exactly why.

And so then when confronted with the safeguards that are actually in place that they don't know existed beforehand, they're like, oh, okay, well, that makes sense, because now they're actually thinking about they're engaging in it maybe for the first time, because they just they just didn't know what the process was and though that it was open for corruption.

I think education is really important here.

I always come back to the the Giuliani hearing in Michigan.

You know, someone testified during that hearing about like the votes coming in in batches.

And that was just suspicious.

And it's like, no, that's a precinct.

Like, that's literally how we count votes, right?

So I do think that the more you can do to sort of lay that baseline of just how elections work and how they are secured and what efforts are made and what checks and balances exist.

I think the more people trust the process.

I mean, one I mean, let's not forget that every Republican and every Trump voter is not an election denier.

It's a segment.

Of, oh, 25%.

I mean, which is which is significant, especially when you have a very tight election, especially at the presidentia level, when you're going to have a very crowded ballot and people will have options other than the Republican an the Democratic Party nominees.

And so I think is, a has been stated multiple times around this table, that also Republicans have a problem that they've got to persuade a registered voters who they've been told for a while now don't trust the election system, that they ought to trust the election system.

Especially the Absentee ballot.

Absolutely.

Didn't Mr. Trump at some poin say that that thing was rigged?

And now they'r saying now it's safe and secure.

Did you see the Michigan Republican Party are putting out fliers that now say early voting is safe and secur with Donald Trump's face on it?

Completely different change.

Well, yeah, because surprisingly, when you tell people that a certain method of voting isn't safe and secure, unsurprisingly, you lose a lot with that specific metric.

So, I mean, it was it wa pretty silly to begin with this this level of sowing distrust in our election system, just speaking frankly here, because obviously this was always going to come back and bite you in the butt.

You can't say that something is, you know, wrong and bad, but please still do it.

That that's never worke anywhere at any point in time.

Now, obviously with this polling that suggests that if voters have more education, they're more inclined to be able to say, yes, okay, our election system is safe.

Will this be too little, too late?

Frankly, I mean, it's October.

Ballots are already going out and back in.

I mean, some early voting sites will open up, I believe, as early as next week.

We're already seeing people cast their ballots.

And this is the time where we're putting the rubber to the road and we're going to figure out whether or no this message is being received.

So Donald Trum comes in to Detroit yesterday.

He speaks to the prestigious Detroit Economic Club, and he did what?

Well, went way over schedule.

I'm going to start there.

Let's start with the Detroit analogy.

Oh, yeah.

So, you know, he made several comments about Detroit that were a little less than flattering.

One really flattering one later on.

But I think the one that stuck out to people was that he told people that if Kamala Harris wins this election, that the whole countr is going to look like Detroit.

And he said that in sort of a negative way, obviously making a bad comparison.

How did you come up with sort of?

Definitely a negative, making a bad comparison.

You led with the headline on that.

Yeah, I did with the headline on it because I don't know how the I mean, you're spitting in the face of the people who you're talking to.

I just don't understand the strategy in that this is the Detroit Economic Club and you're telling people that the entire countr is going to look like your city If thi if if Kamala Harris is elected, how do you not take that the wrong way or take that as a negative?

Somebody, Go ahead.

I was going to say, it's such a dated like reference where you know, back in the nineties, people be like, oh, Detroit, like negative.

But you made a great point actually the other day online where it's obviously like the city is doing so much better.

The city is on the up and up.

I mean, but you also have these suburbanites who are coming down into Detroit who are spending their money, who now have a kinship with, you know, hey, how about them lions?

'Tigs are hot.

You know, we have a lot of good sports teams going on.

We have a lot of great building going on down there.

Economic development.

There are people now who are coming into the city who are not, you know, native Detroiters who now feel a sense of kinship for that city.

And, you know, we look back at Trump losing with, for instance, suburban women.

I'm just I' drawing a comparison here where if you're spitting in the face of this city where 20 years ago, that might have made a difference.

Now you're angering a lo more people than you think you are.

And, if you're.

Go ahead.

and and if your plan is, as the Republicans are, is to go into places where maybe they won't win.

You know, I love the cit of Detroit, but to lose by less.

Well, I mean, you've jus stepped on your own game plan.

Somebody said it's like going out on your first date and wanting to impress your date and then halfway through the date saying, oh, b the way, you've got bad breath.

You know?

Yeah I think that's a good analogy.

I also liked, in some way, I think it's very similar to this statue that was unveiled yesterday that Emily helped us all experience was there this naked Donald Trum 40 foot statue of Donald Trump with no clothes on.

The analogy being that the emperor has no clothes.

And so when he comes in and talks about Kamala Harris's recor and how his was so much better, you've got this statue here that shows does is he really doe he really project any strength?

Is he really the commander that he says he is, or is he the emperor with no clothes?

Put that speech in the context of the Detroit Lions looking really good.

The Tigers strugglin to make it in the World Series and not a peep about that.

Listen, I mean, but.

Here's the ultimate question.

Does it make any difference?

Oh, yeah.

Yeah.

No, the consensus is no.

You know, I disagree.

Remember, if this election in Michigan is as close as we think it may be.

Who sat and said that was wrong, and it will change my vote?

Every little bit matters.

I mean, you know, if the margins are thin, then votes for Robert Kennedy matter.

If you just you know, if you've disillusioned some Detroiters, especially the black male Detroiters, that the Trump campaign, his record is courting, then that makes a difference, i that you don't want to misstep at this point in the campaign to you know, to to to have to adjust your plans after that.

That's the thing, he's only won Michigan once, and that was by 10,000 votes.

And so to your point on the question.

It wasn't more than 50%.

No.

And to that point, I mean, every single vote matters.

And I mean, it goes the opposite way, too.

Obviously, Democrats have a lot to reckon with with the ongoing Israel-Gaza war.

But you go and you spit in the face of.

Yeah, to your point, I mean, Trump spent the Trump campaign has been trying to cour especially like black rappers.

You know, big name people down in the city to try and spread you know, hey, vote for Trump.

Why would I want to do that?

Now, if you're out here badmouthing the city I love and grew up.

With that audience, I mean, those people are invested into what's happening in Detroit.

Real politicians, what have said this is you guys are doing some great things here in Detroit.

I've been here 20 years ago.

I was here Now I hardly recognize that you're doing great things.

Great job.

And Trump goes the other way.

I don't get it.

Yeah.

I mean, I think where it could potentially hurt him is actually in those suburban communitie where he's counting on margins.

Right.

Like, you know you look at a place like Oakland County that, you know, did trend Republican for many years and has since solidl sort of moved bluer and bluer.

You know if you're the Republican Party, you're hoping that Trump can pick up just some number of votes there.

Right.

Like you're hoping that maybe he outperforms what he did there in 2020.

And I think it's hard to to make that case when you're also coming in and saying, hey, this city that you visit all the time, that you love, the sports teams that you make a weekend out of, that maybe you even bought a condo to spend weekends and in some cases.

All right.

There was one... To your point is the people, it's not going to persuade, even if they're offended b the message, are the Republicans who are going to sa that's just Trump being Trump?

Well, what does Trump being Trump help him?

I mean, not in that context, but the people that it's not going to hurt him with are the people who are still going to see my point.

Okay.

All right.

So it's it's a some loss.

I mean, there's no gain there.

There is some loss on the the the persuadable side, but potentially, yeah.

Alright quickly the polling data continues to say that Trump does better with voters who are concerned about the economy.

She does better with the abortion issue.

My question to you is which one is the cutting edge issue that maybe decides this election?

I don't think either one does.

I think this is an issue of personalities and not one of actual votes.

And people are gravitated toward the strength that Trump projects or they're not or they like kind of this new vision, this new face that Kamala Harris brings and maybe maybe the pocketbook things work on the margins with some people and maybe abortion brings some women out to vote who wouldn't normally vote.

But I think most people are voting on personality.

I mean, same kind of copout answer everybody has wallets, the economy hurts.

Well the thing I don't want to call it a copout.

I'm sorry, but it kind of is you asked the yes or no question.

But no.

Give time for rebuttal.

Go ahead I'm sorry.

Well no, and I apologize.

Not copout.

It's a great it's a cheap shot, go ahead.

It's not a cheap shot.

I'm so sorry.

But so no, the economy affects impacts everybody to that point.

But abortion is a huge driving issue for women.

That being said, I do agree with Kyle in that I don't really know if these are going to be the things that actually do end u driving people out to the polls.

A lot of this is going to be a contest of personality.

A lot of people either kno I'm backing Trump and he could, you know, throw somebody off the Empire State Building.

I'd still back Trump.

I'm backing Harris.

I can throw somebody off the, you know, Golden Gate Bridge and I'd still backer And so whether or not they move the needle on this, I think it's really just to focus on whether or not there's faux pas in the next month.

Emily Yeah, I agree with that.

I think that people already have a general sense of who these candidates are, which is somewhat of a feat for Harris who really, you know, obviously had a very short season with which to impart that.

But I do think that people are sort of, you know, have made up their minds and are looking for ways to explain it to people.

So maybe the economy is that maybe abortion flat.

But I mean, which which portion of the economy if you're talking about if it's housing costs.

Sure.

If it's jobs numbers.

Well, you know what?

That's you know, that's improving.

So look at proposal three.

Didn' we all agree around this table that when Proposal three was on the ballot, that was a determining factor in the race for governor?

All right.

Now, Prop three i not on the ballot, but abortion.

The issue is still alive in Michigan, is it not?

Depends on who you ask, I suppose.

All right.

Democrats will keep trying to make it.

All right.

Let's wrap it up.

Thanks to all of you.

A great show.

Thin we should put this on the air?

See you next week.

For more Off the Record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible, in part, by Martin Waymire, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at MartinWaymire.com.

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Michigan public television stations have contributed to the production costs of Off the Record.