The last debate for governor is now in the books.

What did they say or not say?

On deck is Representative Parker Fairbairn, who is head of the GOP House Campaign Committee.

He wants the Republicans to take control.

So sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the Record.

Production of Off the Record, as made possible in part by Bellwether Public Relations, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

Learn more at bellwether pr.com.

And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Thank you very much for tuning into.

Off the record, well the last gubernatorial debate is now in the history books and will have lots to say about that.

Good morning, everybody.

Nice to have you with us.

We're getting close.

How many days is it?

Chad-a-roo?

17.

Close enough.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, it'll be over soon.

All right, so I want I want to start on kind of an unusual angle on this debate there were they teach you in debate school that to stay on message.

Give Mr.

James credit for stayin on message with his line about.

She's been in Lansing fo eight years and basically done squat, in my words, not his.

What's going on here, Chad?

Well, they're trying to reinforce that that peopl there are some voters out there that may be just tired o the current regime, essentially.

And, and and I mean, he didn't bring up Gretchen Whitmer by name, but in those instances.

But he's definitely trying to get at the voter who just thinks that the state is going nowhere that there's been no progress.

And, and, and remind people that, oh, by the way, we normally change parties every of eight years in this state.

We have essentially since the late hour since the 60s essentially.

So.

So this is, this is this sort of a casual reminder to to vote for me now, please.

What do you think?

Yeah.

I'm not sure that it landed with a lot of people.

I mean, the secretary of state is not typically a legislative body.

She isn't the one making the policy or or signing it at the end of the day.

But it is an effort to remind people that, like Chad said, they do.

They want a change from the status quo.

It's not just who is in the presidency right now, it's who's been in the governor seat for the past eight years.

And you?

Let's make it unanimous?

Yes, this is an anti-establishment, election going on right now.

Whether you're a Democrat or Republican.

Voters want to see something new, I think, but I don't like Beth said.

And Chad said, I don't think it lands too much because.

Was she on the floor of the house?

Was you on the floor of the Senate?

The holding people on arms, getting them to vote for a certain way?

I don't think that that's, really, a salient attack.

Secretary of state is not part of the administration of the governor of Michigan.

I mean, that that is something that a lot of people don't even realize.

They're, you know, constitutionally autonomous and they don't report to the governor.

Well, she finally said, I don't have a vote.

She could have said, Mr.

James, I am not the governor, but I'm going to be okay.

Or some line like it came up in the last debate and she really didn't address it.

She said it on the gas tax, saying because he came out swinging against her.

I mean, he had one of his best lines.

That debate was you didn't let your own running mate hold a vote.

And she did not respond to that charge.

I mean, referring to the Senat majority leader Winnie Brinks, whose chamber very much did punt on a gas tax holiday.

Well and I thought that was a point wher if he wanted to make the point that you've been there for eight years when he was the person to raise it with, and he does have a record that he could have taken Ron, could he not have?

Exactly.

But conversely, Benso could have brought up, DeBoyer and how close he is to leadership in the House.

And I think that, you know, it could have been a slippery slope for either of them, because DeBoyer has been a part of some legislative efforts that might not be popular amon moderate or independent voters.

Yeah.

I really don't think he was concerned about he wanted to make the point that Mrs.

Benson didn't do a lot.

Okay.

Which people, I think might understand if they listened.

But it was really about this tradition in Michigan that we do a Republican governor for eight years, and then we do a Democrat, and then we do a Republican, and then we do a Democrat.

That's what he's going for here, clearly.

Don't you think?

Yeah, he's trying he's trying for that.

It is a little late to be making that argument, when people have been a half, a million people have already sent their ballots in and in, effectively, voting has been underway for 3 or 4, three weeks now.

All right.

So apart from that, what what what was your lead?

Yeah.

Well, there i I don't know if this was a lead, but it definitely perked my ears was when he went afte her for her quote unquote, blue blue ribbon commissions, because a lot of, Benson's policies have called for taskforces to be formed or commissions or a review.

And for a lot of folks in Lansing who are pretty jaded by those words, I think that for a lot of us, means a report that sits on a shelf for years afterwards.

So I think he he kin of was going after that, that, that a commission a review, is that a real plan?

And he went even further and said actually that, you know, cover for a tax increase.

At the end of the day, I don't know that it goes that far, but he certainly took it to that point.

And as Beth said before the show began, a review of revenues.

We don't we do that, you know, twice a year for for the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference.

We, we look at where all the money's coming in, and I think that, she'll find that she gets that data pretty soon.

Well, Bensons referring to an annual report that is is form that that shows basically all the tax exemptions and loopholes we have in the system that, we famously do not tax, the baby shoe bronzing in the state of the service that was once briefly taxed.

But there's all these other services out there that don't there are billions of dollars of, of, of untaxed services out there.

And lots of people in this town, including this current governor, have have looked at that, thought about it, dreamt about it, didn't act on it.

And so, you know, James is you know, trying to say, look, those that's the code word right there, the blue ribbon commission, you know, you know, he did everything but bring up the Cherry Commission report.

Which was next on the agenda, probably, they did get into property tax relief, which I thought was kind of interesting.

Her solution to property tax was to give more revenue sharing to the locals.

Did you make any in your story about that?

Yeah, I think so.

That was an interesting point that she brought up.

That part of this idea would be that she would review all of the revenue to see where there were loopholes or other area where we aren't taxing or areas where we are, where we could share more with the locals.

And, James, turn around and turn that into an attac on some of the local communities who he said are getting around, you know, your typical baseline property taxes by going after sinking funds and bonds for these really gorgeous football fields and sports complexes, while education score are slipping within the state.

With the cost of housing nowadays, I think that property taxes no matter what side of the aisle that you sit on, or are more and more an issue when you talk to people who are unable to buy a home, who are even finding it hard to rent because the the prices of these, condos or these apartments is going up as well.

So I think that in the next legislature, no matter who is going to be governor, it's going to be an issue.

Well, and you also took a shot at we have too many administrators in schools, 50% of the money going to, which is a it's something that Republicans have been saying for years.

Yeah.

But but also Democrats say, look, you created like 300 little mini school districts.

You is in Republican Party through through the creation of charter schools.

You created a boatload of school administration jobs in the state, essentially, and all these new little mini school districts that popped up in the last 25 years.

And so as a result, yes we have more money per student going into going towards, administration.

We also have fewer students.

I mean, that is helping, you know, bring bring up that percentage of, of, cost per per student for administration.

Perhaps it was a missed opportunity, but he could have turned to her and said, didn't your governor in her last state of the state, say that we were not getting our money's worth out of education, Madam Secretary?

That would have brought home the point in spades, would it not?

You mean.

And after the debate, a reporter asked her, you know, what has the previous administration not done?

Effectively.

And she answered, that it was education, that she did not think that enough was done on education.

And I even think that Lansing, Democrats, recognize that that is something that has not been done owing to, you know, the governor's state of the state.

How about his explanation of income tax stuff?

He he laid out what he wanted to do pretty well, didn't he?

Yeah.

But I think in a lot of in a lot of these explanations of what you're going to do with the income tax, there's a question of how you're going to replace it.

And they're talking about a lot of pork in the budget.

I mean.

$3 million for openers.

Yeah.

In some of those numbers I think are a little suspect.

There certainly is some pork in the budget.

There are certainly areas where they could tighten the belt.

But also, I mean, that pork that he's talking about, it is traditionally used to ge a budget across the finish line to in the horse trading at the end of the budget.

So it's a question of can you actually get a budget without that in it across the finish line?

If you have a divided government.

Neither of these candidate have addressed what happens when we have an economic recession we haven't had saved for the pandemic.

We haven't had a real economic recession in this town, where, you know, revenues been down in in 15 years since Jennifer Granholm.

Yes.

It's been a long time.

And so nobody has actually been prepared for this.

You know, when they go out and make all these various promise nobody's really talking about.

I mean, when Benson goes out and promises and she, you watch she this will be used against her in a court of of the capital when she goes and promises cities and counties more revenue sharing, what is the first thing they used to cut during the Granholm years?

Revenue sharing.

Statutory revenue sharing gone.

And that will be that will be what will be haunting her if she finds herself in a economic recession as governor.

And then you had the day to day over the, the beloved MEDC.

Everybody in town loves the MEDC.

But apparently not.

During the debate, she took a softer line on the organization that she has previously, at least in what she's told me.

She said earlier, she's going to get rid of somebody.

Yeah.

She said that, you know, she wasn't going to give them any more money until they changed their act, but didn't really take that strong of a of a position at the debate.

And I think she, she had an opportunity, and took it referring to James past, you know, use of MEDC money, his company's past use of the MEDC money.

But it wasn't really followed through on.

Just to correct the record.

It is my memory correct, that he didn't return the mone because he didn't have to.

Yes.

Okay.

Because she said he he he didn't return the money.

Well, he didn't have to legally.

No, you don't not have to.

I mean, and that's, that's deep in the bowels of MEDC programs and language and, and, claw backs.

But, but it kind of gets a the larger issues of the MEDC.

Yeah.

Neither of them had, you know, kind of fortunately came out other than John James said, hey, I'm going to take like the I think the SOAR money in the 500 million or so.

I'm going to use that to give you a gas tax holiday at the end of the day.

I mean, he that's that was some of the things that were being tossed around, but no, no real concrete.

You know how we're going to fix the MEDC.

So, I mean.

The truth of the matter is, Tim is like these these candidates can come with a lot of big ideas.

If anything, more than a name change happens at the MEDC, I'd be surprised.

I think it's just too tempting for governors to use their agency to to do what they want with it.

All right.

He prior to the debate, he said that this now his campaign is going to be grassroots and social media driven.

When you heard that Remington, what did you think?

I think that it is the, not the death knell of a campaign, but it is certainly, a cry out for help.

You know, the Republican Governors Association taking its money out.

We did hear this week that, the Republican Party and Michigan Republicans are going to put out some ads that mention John James.

I created committee to take in the money.

But Stu Sandler says, I don't know how much money is coming in on Friday.

You know, I did.

I wouldn't believe by this, this story too much.

I mean, come on, they don't have a real number to throw out like, this is this is an effort to try to boost him up.

Maybe we can shave off one percentage point.

They're trying to save the state house.

They're trying to stay save Bill Huizenga, a nine term congressman.

They're trying to save, To Barrett, freshman congressman.

They're trying to keep the kee the seat in the 10th district, the James district.

I mean, this is all about saving down ballot races.

And they got to basically drag, John James over the finish line with them.

So are you saying that at the top of the ticket does poorly the bottom of the tickets are in trouble?

That's how it usually works.

Yes.

Yeah.

Do we all agree on that?

Yes, to a certain extent.

I mean, there is, you know some good politicking out there when you look at what local candidates have been able to do to connect with their voters, I think that there has been a lot more grassroots campaigning this year than we would have seen other years.

And to the James campaign's credit, I did see, their calendar going forward.

They are opening it up to a lot more public events, media events.

They are trying to follo through with that grassroots or, word of mouth campaign.

We should note that voters have split their ticket in the state in 2006, when Jennifer Granholm defeated Dick DeVos and Debbie Stabeno won reelection by double digits.

Mike Cox, a Republican, an and Terri Lynn Land, Republican.

Both both won by double digits.

So people will split their ticket for certain candidates in campaigns.

All right.

Let's let's talk about control of the Michigan House with a gentleman who's trying to round up a lot of seats for them.

Representative.

Come on in.

Representative, welcome to Off the Record.

Nice to have you on board.

I know politicians hate hypothetical ones.

Let's start with one.

Is it possible that some of these House races are so close that on election night we will not know which party i controlling the Michigan House?

And it could take recounts to determine who's in power?

I think even last year or two years ago, you sa there was a need for a recount.

That's a possibility, I'd say.

But really, I think that the focus we've had, on our, our key districts is ensuring that our people are meeting, the voters at the doors.

And that's what happened.

You look at all of these swing districts.

Our people are working, they're mobilized.

We've raised record amount of money, in the last two years.

So we're in a position with our incumbents where we've put body armor on them over the last year and a half, with votes they've taken, with legislation they passed and signed into law, that we believe we're in a very good position to retain the House majority.

So.

So you're not losing sleep at night.

You're sleeping like a baby?

Well.

I've got a four month old at home, so I'm not sleep fancy at all.

Duly noted.

But you're not worried?

No, we're we're confident.

I mean, House Republican have been projecting confidence.

And I believe you see that with what we've been doing, whether it's in the legislature on the campaign trail, our people are working very hard to ensure that, we retain the house.

What kind of body armor have you, put on some of your incumbents and and thes and your new recruits as well?

Sure I think of the 109th district.

Carl.

Bone back.

He had legislation signed into law just a few weeks ago keeping, big corporations, hedge funds, Wall Street from being able to buy up homes in the state of Michigan, up in the U.P.. That pulls very well with folks.

It's something they want to hear.

And they're happy that, Representative Bone Act was able to do that.

So and there's there's plenty of other examples like that.

Representative Republicans up and down the ticket right now are kind of facin Trump it Trump headwinds right.

Like that.

They are trying to overcome or separate themselves from the president on certain issues so that they aren't looked upon poorly in in the way his ratings are as well.

What are your candidates doing to separate themselves from Trump, or are they at this point?

You know, I would say you look at the voter base and you're going to have people who like the president and don't like the president.

Our job is to make sure that we capture as many of those votes as possible, people who like the president and don't.

I think we've done a good jo of that, of, making sure that, you know, the Trump supporter are still behind our candidates, as well as, getting these moderate Democrats, independents, swing voters to to vote for our folks as well.

But how do you do that at the doors when somebody comes to their door and is really ticked of about gas prices or inflation, what kind of message do they have?

I mean, you look at some of the ads we've made and we've we've really tried to make an emotional connection with, with the voters.

I look at ads for Steve Frisbi where he has lifelong Democrats coming and doing ads for him that are on, on air right now, saying, hey, we're voting for Steve because he's a genuine guy.

He's helped us with X, Y, Z, issues.

I mean, those are connecting with voters, where you haven't seen advertisements like that.

I think in the past we reall curated, ads or talking points.

Our message at the doors to ensure that we're able to reach the most broad audience.

You know, with the national media, environment, you know, it.

While a lot of people don't necessarily get as much local news as they do national news nowadays, how much has broken through, what the legislature, what the state House has been able to do?

How much are you hearing from voters?

Oh, I liked this bill or that or I didn't quite like when the legislature did this?

Sure.

I mean, I think of a few examples, property tax we were able to get done through the state House passed through the state House, the pop up tax, being a part of that, our seniors are being stuck in these, large family homes.

Because if they're if they're to downsize, their property taxes are going to go up.

These are rea world issues that we're seeing.

We tackled them.

And that's an example of one that, we really got success out of, when we hear it at the doors.

Do they, assign blame equally on some of the downsides?

I mean, the 2025 budget, do they say, oh, we didn't quite like that.

Do they spread it ou or do they put blame somewhere?

So I would say at voters at the they're not talking about late budgets.

That's just not it's cost of living.

And we've, we've really tried to address that, whether it's health care costs, property tax, we have all of these examples of trying to lower costs for people in the state of Michigan.

And I think if, I mean, these were promises we made back in 2024 on the campaign trail when we were trying to get majority.

And I, I think, you know, the Democrats had a trifecta just two years ago, and they had an opportunity to solve some of these issues, and they didn't.

Well you promised propert tax relief in a delivered none?

Well, I mean we passed it through the House that's sitting with our state Senate.

We'd love to see a dea get done by the end of the year.

Well, arent taking credit for property tax relief?

No, I mean, what we're takin credit for is we have the plan.

The plan passed the House in a bipartisan fashion.

It's in the Senate.

The governor's interested i doing something on property tax.

The people want something done on property tax.

And it's stalled in the Senate.

Is it not the responsibility of both legislative bodies to talk about this?

I mean, during this year' budget talks, the property tax, I know the House Republicans were really on that.

Shouldn't there be more conversations rather than just saying on chamber is not doing this?

Sure.

I mean, we have been having conversations and we're trying to get deals done on legislation, to round out the year.

But, you know, the Senate majority leader is off campaigning for, for governor and lieutenant governor.

I mean, there's there's som extracurriculars at play here.

Why do you have the House Republicans not taking a vote to suspend the gas tax?

I mean, we said and I know the speake and you guys are aware of this.

We said if the Senate sends it over to us, we would, we would send it to the governor.

And I know the governor is interested in it.

So I think there's there's still a possibility of that.

I think it's a little late if you're talking, getting it done before the election.

And we're not trying to election here.

We we want to cause or give real relief to folks.

And, I mean, the 52 cent gas tax would help with that.

So we'd like to see it get done.

Why would you make yoursel subservient to those folks over in the Senate?

Oh, we're not subservient.

I mean, we have what you just said.

If the Senate said why don't you just want pass it?

Take a vote I think we could.

And I think.

Well then why dont you?

There's potential.

We're in session next week.

I think there's a real opportunity.

We could do that.

But I'm not in the room.

And the discussions with the Senate and, with House leadership on that.

But but I mean, you think that you should if you were speaker, would you run it?

I'd love to see that that ran it's just a matter of, there's, what, 17 days left an election we're trying to win.

I mean, there's a lot of, again, extracurriculars there.

Representative Democrats have been expressing optimism about the first Congressional distric and Calli Barrs ability to to beat the incumbent Republican in northern Michigan in the Upper Peninsula.

What what kind of feel are yo getting from northern Michigan?

Do you think winds are changing up there?

More toward Democrats at this point?

I'd say they're definitely not.

I mean, you look at the data from two years ago.

Congressman Bergmann defeated Callie Barr, the same person running again by 100,000 votes.

I don't know where you're going to find 100,000 votes in two years.

So I think General Bergmann is going to be fine.

I look forward to continuin to work with him on issues that, we can work on together.

But I'd say Congressman Bergmann is going to get reelected, and hell stay Congressman, as long as hed like.

Let's also focus on, you know, Southwest Michigan, Speaker Hall, the Democrats have been sort of making a concerted effort to try to flip his seat.

Are you sending money down to, Richland Township?

This is a really good question.

I would say so.

These Democrats do not have a strategy right now.

They're taking the shotgun approach and really spamming money wherever, they can.

Weve, the House Republicans have taken a very targeted approac on where we're spending money.

Our strategy over the last year and a half really hasn't changed.

We said we were going to be very surgical with how we were going to do this operation of retaining the house and I believe we've done that.

I mean, you're seeing the pare back money and and speaker Halls seat,, the Democrats are so I, I don't see that as an issue.

But good for them for wasting money.

In some of these areas.

Would you concede there is an enthusiasm gap, it appears that the D's are just really geeked to get out and vote and the MAGA Republicans the speaker said this early on.

He said that one of our major problems is getting our MAGA base out.

Do you agree with that assessment?

So two years ago, we actually received national awards for targeting individual voting groups.

And we've got that same team, same strategy this year.

I would say the enthusiasm you look at Abdul at the top of the ticket with Mike Rogers.

I don't believ Republicans are returning polls.

I don't think they're picking up the phone and, texting, the polls.

So I don't think the numbers are really accurate right now with the polling.

I think Republicans are going to come out.

And really, the only pol that matters is on November 3rd.

And I believe Republicans are going to turn out.

But you guys are doin internal polling, correct?

Yes.

What does it say?

I mean, we're in a very good position.

We are going to keep the House majority with the numbers.

We're seeing.

The best.

Comment.

I mean, we see this week Abdul El-Sayed up in the U.P., getting pretty decent crowds and what, you know, are some red areas, in the state.

Do you see that enthusiasm on the Republican side?

Could a Republican candidat get that crowd up in Escanaba?

Marquette?

I just I saw I find it very interesting.

I saw a picture of, Puri, the Democra potential Democrat leader and, Abdul getting on a plan to fly up to the Upper Peninsula when they sai they're going to do a bus tour.

So I don't think it's genuine what they're doing.

I love that they're sendin AOC up into the Upper Peninsula.

The yoopers do not want a socialist.

They aren't into socialism.

So I don't think that's that' really a nonstarter with folks up in the Upper Peninsula.

And that' what I've heard from my people.

Would you welcome Donald Trump at a rally in Petoskey next week?

Absolutely.

Yeah.

If you think you would help, help you help.

Yes.

And I think.

Congressman Bergman?

I think the president has I mean, historically, he likes to come into the state of Michigan the week before the election or the night before the elections.

I still think it's a possibility.

All right, so look at your crystal ball.

What's the final number?

I don't really think we have a final number.

What I'd say is I think House Republicans ar are going to keep the majority.

I think we're going to it' going to be a strong majority.

Do I don't think this is going to be a narrow majority.

At least five votes?

At least.

That's right.

And maybe even more.

Maybe.

Even more, but not less?

I like your, your enthusiasm.

Well, whatever that was.

Representative.

Good to see you.

Nice to have you on our broadcast.

Panel, thanks for showing up, guys.

You please show up next week for more off the record right here.

See you then.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in part by Bellwether Public Relations, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

Learn more at bellwetherpr.com.

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