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The new polling data is out.

A gas tax holiday is now a questio mark, and Detroit Representative Tyrone Carter is here to discus control of the Michigan House.

So sit in with us is we get the inside out, Off the Record.

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And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Welcome back to Off the Record studio C when you have polling data this out.

But we do have new developments on the gas ta or maybe not new developments.

What's going on Kyle?

Well, the Senate Democrat had debated behind closed doors this week whether we should suspend the state's 52.4 cent gas tax because of the fact that we're getting about $5 a gallon gasoline, or at least we did last week.

And, you know, there's always a chance that we'll get it again.

And als because we've seen other states go ahead and take similar action, the governor and, and Georgia did.

Ohio's legislature just passed that this week and with with folk staring at those kind of prices at the pump.

The Senate Democrats thought well, this might be a quick and easy way to connect with voter by giving them a little relief.

And then?

Well, then they debated behind closed doors on it and they found out they didn't have the the, you know, the consensus that maybe they thought they did.

And there's also real political repercussions to doing somethin that's pretty overtly political.

You know, what happen if gas gets up to $6 a gallon?

What happens, you know, are you setting a floor now by which the gas tax becomes optional?

And that becomes a very tricky situation.

Didn't we think going into the Senate session this was a slam dunk?

Well I mean, I think nobody I can't imagine that anybody loses by passing a gas tax holiday.

Right?

Like I imagine most voters would be thankful for that.

I think what there is, though, to is there's the specter of Governo Whitmer possibly vetoing this.

If it does get to her, doesn't matter.

It doesn't matter.

And here's a scenario that could play out, too.

If if they're worried about that, wait until she leaves the state, send it over to Gilchrist.

Bingo.

And Gilchrist can put a feather in his cap.

Bingo.

In the secretary of state election.

And that's.

And the governor, frankly, isn't in Michigan that much these days.

So like I mean, they might have an opportunit before the election to do that if they really wanted it.

And she very, she was asked about it this week and she had Stone.

Whether or no she would veto or not said this.

She's more in favor right now of things being done on the federal level, but she left wiggle room to be able to do it if she wanted.

Well she also said.

Or you go with your idea, let Gilchrist do it.

Well, I'm that's that's an interesting angle.

And that could be.

But she also said they're looking for other ways to find the money.

Maybe they could ask lawmakers to reduce their pay and put it in a fund and, Oh.

Excuse me.

But is she serious about that?

You know what?

We're talking 6 to $700 million.

I mean, so that's not anythin you're going to get with some, you know, trim in here, trimming there.

I mean, that's quite a bit of money.

And they would have to go into the rainy day fund really, to immediately, backfill that money.

And that money would have to be backfilled.

I mean, we only got, what, two months left before construction season really ends.

We got a lot of projects that the crews are out there and that would, you know, in some cases tha could pull the plug on finishing some very vital work i on freeways and local highways and do we really want to go down that road.

And, and I think that was really the question.

I mean is is it politics or is it optics and politics and optics, or are we looking at legitimate policy?

And that's where I really think we got into some trouble.

The speaker is.

Go ahead.

Well, I also think like if the were to dip into the rainy day fund to cover this, there's 2.2 billion in there right now.

I mean, that would be basically a third of the rainy day fund that they'd have to pull out for this.

I think they could i seems like they could manage it.

But at the same time, too, I think what they're also looking at is that the other funding mechanism for roads is this marijuana tax that they put in place is bringing in far less revenue than they expected.

Who knows if they'll have to dip in somewhere else to cover that shortage as well.

So there are a lot of kind of balls in the air that they got to watch.

The speaker is on a journey to find a position on this issue.

He's he's, I think he's landed on one, which is basically this earlier this week, he said, look, it if the Senate is going to send us this cut, you have to have the replacement revenue.

Then yesterday one of his people told me, well, if they send it with or without, he's still going to put it up in a vote.

So that's his final position.

Look a this is a political vote, okay.

And the roa industry is going bad precedent because if they can do it to us now next time there's emergency.

Guess what happened there back at the well coming after us again.

Yeah.

So keep in mind this is a governor who for the last eight years, her whole mantra has been fix the roads, fix the roads, fix the roads.

Not that this is going to make a big dent into that, but I'm sure she doesn't wan anybody messing with, you know.

These other states, too.

I mean, the roads are all right.

I mean, Georgia, where they suspended the gas tax.

You could rollerblade down about every single road in Georgia if there are no potholes.

Oh my goodness no.

I worked there for two years.

There are no potholes in the Georgia roads.

It's the most incredible thing because there's no freeze thaw cycle.

And also you get into like Ohio and Indiana, they get more federal money than we get because they're a passed through state.

You can get from coast to coas by driving to Ohio and Indiana.

So they get more from the feds than we get.

And they also they don't get the freeze thaw cycle.

So it's it's harder for us.

We have to create entire huge policie to fix our crappy roads up here.

But if if the Senate and Senators are up for reelection, don't they want to go back home and say, we did something for you?

I mean, I think, well, and I, I know we're talking about passage being political.

I think also the decision not to pass it is a little bit political as well, because here you have Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks leading the Senate, not holding a vote while her running mate has come ou against suspending the gas tax.

I think any way you look at it, there kind of political implications on on every angle of this.

But yeah, I mean, I'm sure Senator Kevin Hertel would love to say that he he led a bil that could suspend the gas tax.

Hes in a clos district would like that bump.

But you have Joh James on the outside looking in.

He's just waiting to see what when he brings doesn't do.

So he could do something on that right.

Yes.

He is.

And it's it's easy to take that position when you're not the one having to make the decision on it.

Life is beautiful isnt it?

If you're on the ballot right now for November, whether you're a Democrat or Republican, you're hearing from your constituents about the high gas prices, the high grocery prices, all of these inflationary things.

And we know from past history, a lot of times even with all these high profile sexy issues, when people go into the booth, oftentimes they vote on the pocketbook issues.

So.

You know, and the Democrats too, they love to keep the focus on the gas prices because they go right to Trump with that.

This is the reason why you're paying high gas price because of Trump's war in Iran.

They'll beat that drum all day.

All right.

Is that being reflected in the polling data that we've seen this week?

Let's take the the governor' race, first of all, Benson over James, a second poll now with a double digit lead.

Yeah.

That's I mean things are going in the wrong direction for Republicans.

The Maris poll not only showed Abdul El-Sayed up seven points on Mike Rogers, but it showed the universe o people who could possibly flip shrinking to microscopic numbers.

I mean, undecideds were at 3%.

And also half of thos probably won't show up.

Right.

And then you got the people who said they could change their mind.

That's only 4%.

Only 4% of the people responded say they could possibly change their mind.

I mean, we're five weeks out and people seem like they're already locked in.

I think that Republicans hav right now, particularly in this, is the fact that the presiden is trying to make this election all about him when he's not on the ballot, and his approval rating is at an all time low.

It's very, very difficult for these candidates to get out here and separate themselves.

Since the primary, you have not seen Rogers or I'm drawing a blank.

Oh.

James, Joh James running with Donald Trump, but they certainly ran with him during the primary.

They're trying to mak as much separation as they can without being disrespectful, but it's making it difficult.

Don't you think?

If they went to the white House and say, look at we're in it, we're in a pickle here, Mr.

President, no disrespect but we're going to have to put a little distance between us and you.

And is he going to say no?

I mean, I think that's that's the balance that everybody's trying to find right now.

And I mean, in particular, I look at like the seventh Congressional District, which is a very swing district they're looking at.

It is possibly helping to flip the US House.

Tom Barrett, the incumbent Republican, has has listed out ways in which he split with Trump.

But then he also has Trump surrogates coming in to to campaign for him.

The EPA director, the, RFK Jr.

There are lot of folks coming in for him.

And I think there's kind of that balance that he's trying to find among Trump voters and those independents that he's going to have to win to, to win this district again.

The president is doing something smart.

I mean, he's going to red states.

He's going to safe areas where he can get big crowds.

And it looks like there's enthusiastic support.

The question will be, does he get into the states like Michigan, where they're very close races in the very purple states?

You know, Tim, the enthusiasm gap is really incredible.

You know, I hosted something with the Northern Michigan Business Alliance a couple weeks ago, and Abdu El-Sayed was going to be there.

And there was a line around the block of the of the, Traverse City Opera House trying to get in the door to see this guy.

And there was more folks there than we've ever had for one of our things up there in Traverse City.

And now you look at like a John James gathering.

How many times has he been in front of the crowd?

You know, I saw a little TikTok video or some kind of video on social media the other day there.

Look, maybe there were 10 or 15 people there.

The enthusiasm is is really working toward the Democratic advantage.

You see polling data that shows, especially among young people, it's up to 80, 90%.

And then young Republicans, it's like 40, 50%.

You're really feeling it out there.

They show up.

They showed up in the primary.

That's why I have dual I'll say it's the nominee.

And Haley Stevens is not, you know, without the young vote, Haley Stevens is the nominee right now.

And that's who we're talking about.

But they are enthused.

They are excited.

And they if they showed up in the primaries, there's no reason they wouldn't show up in the general, especially since schools in.

Well, what's the October surprise?

Here we sit.

Does the economy turn around?

No.

Does he end the war?

The gas prices come down, the pollsters say a resounding no.

Even if he did at this point, I think, you know, there's a recognition in Michigan that voting has begun, right like that, that people are already turning in their absentee ballots, changes even a week out from now or two weeks from now, you might miss a significant number of voters who have already turne in their ballots at that point.

So it's if something's going to happen, it better be an early October surprise.

All right.

Well, let's find ou what's going on down in Detroit with a representative, a Tyrone Carter Democrat from Detroit who is joining us now.

Back to Off the Record Nice to see you, representative.

So look in your crystal ball.

You're you're you're a consummate insider.

You know everybody gas tax holiday D.O.A.?

It's dea I mean they had the opportunity yesterday to do something an I don't see it coming back up.

Why not?

Well $0.50 is $0.50.

And some of the points you all made earlier is how many times when you have a rainy day that you dip into this as one, two.

$0.50.

Sounds good, but what if it keeps going up because there's no end to this war?

So to do something as a knee jerk and people will see it as totally political at this point.

But representative.

That we we just kind of sit back and wait a minute.

But with all due respect, you're arguing policy, okay?

Your, many of your colleagues are arguing I want to get reelected.

Guess which one wins in this town?

Getting reelected.

I mean, getting gavels.

That is the nature of the game.

But, you know, maybe it's different for me because I live in the community that I grew up in.

So the tabletop issues, I see them every day, and they kno that there's a cause and effect.

If we do this, then the what's next?

Then you alluded to the 24%, cannabis tax.

I knew it wasn't going to bring in the revenue because it's legal no and people can do it themselves.

So we've got to look at everything.

And I think the gas tax is an easy one right now because everybody outside of an electric car or, goes to the gas station.

Let's talk about politics a little bit Representative.

Abdullah El-Sayed, the US Senate candidate, obviously didn't win.

The city of Detroit lost b double digits to Haley Stevens.

Is he starting to make inroads in your city?

Is ther is there any excitement at all in folks going out and voting for the guy?

Yes.

We've held several meetings with them to get him to understand there was a reason.

It was almost like, you know, I'll just be honest tha certain areas were overlooked.

So I represent Detroit, southwest Detroit, Ecorse and River Rouge.

There was zero presence from his, his campaign.

Now they've ramped it up.

We've had meetings with the mayors, to have that conversation about what were the issues before.

And I can say this, Haley came down and at least asked us for our support.

So I don't kno if it was strategy on his part, but now that he's a nominee, I think we've got to get behind it.

Have you made any inroads with, Jewish Detroiters and particularly Democrats who normally vote Democrat on the LCD issue because they have been very, very vocal that they are not going to support you.

Well, som of them have been really vocal.

Yeah.

You know, it's a team sport.

We need everybody on the team.

I mean, we've gone through this in election cycles with uncommitted as well.

So, you know, we got to keep getting the to understand the consequences and unintended consequences that we've already suffered through that.

What happens when when we don't support one another?

We can just point to everything that's going on out of Washington right now.

What uncommitted did.

So, hey, hold your nose.

Let's go to the polls and let's make this happen.

Representative, you talk about kind of putting aside your personal preferences and holding your nose to vote for somebody.

How many candidates on the ticket this year are you holding your nose for, or are there some that you're really enthusiastic about?

I've been know as a, pretty even Steven person.

And it's a team sport.

I know I kind of ducked that a little bit, but, I know the consequences of the other sid having the gavel and the power.

So there are no perfect candidates.

It's probably some people in my district that don't think much of me.

But at the end of the day, we've got to figure out how do we get the team to rally around our nominees.

And I think they're doing a great job.

The economy, like you guys talked about, is a big deal, is a huge deal.

I mean, that's what Washington was on before the economy.

Well now the economy is blistering.

I mean, it is if we had a transportation system of any consequence, $5 gas wouldn't be that bad.

So there are so many factors that we can address moving forward that if we have the Democratic trifecta, but then we raise expectations.

So to answer your question quickly, I'm just going to be a team player.

Okay.

Represent.

Let me rephrase it.

Are there any candidates that you are?

Are there any candidates that you're particularly enthusiastic about?

I mean, I think it's a good a good team.

I really do.

I think the governor, Jocelyn, has been all over the state.

I mean, she has reimagined.

I don't have to spend half a day at the DMV or Secretary of State.

I can get my tags at Kroger now.

So I think that the top of the ticket, transforms everything going down.

So I think that we're enthusiastic.

It's hard to get me enthused at 64 years old, with all the things that I've seen.

Because there's no absolutes.

Representative.

Let's talk about internal Democratic House politics.

Let's just say you.

Trying to get me in trouble.

Youre trying to get me in trouble.

But lets go.

Raise your right hand.

Okay.

Let's assume you guys take back control.

Will there be a discussion abou who is the leader going to be, or will there be a coronation and an anointment of the current leader, Mr.

Puri?

So that's a great question.

I go back two years ago when, we lost and the current leader was nowhere in the mix.

There are no absolutes, but I think if we get th numbers, we come out victorious.

Then I think that it is his job to lose.

I think that, you know, if we win and that's been his focus on us getting back majority that I think we have to lead that way because he's been successful.

Just a guess, I'm going to guess there are some people in your caucus would say, you know, that's a great idea on paper but we have other ideas, okay?

We think somebody new needs to come in there.

Have you heard that chatter?

Oh yeah.

It's always that chatter.

We're goin to get a bunch of new members.

We've got folks that have decided not to run, whether it's Joe Tate, Reggie Miller.

We've got folks that are saying, I'm going over to the Senate.

They're about 5 or 6.

So and so there's going to b some new blood coming up there.

And I remember when we when we got majority, we had 28 new members.

So we've got to get this thing together as a team sport to get them to understand, leadership does matter, but it's got to be all hands on deck because I've been through minority minority, majority, now minority.

And, we should have learned some lessons.

I hope we did.

Representative, you represent about 90,000 people in the metro Detroit area.

What are you hearing in your district on proposal one and proposal two, con con and getting money out of politics?

And are those two issues that, in this very Partizan world that we're in now, scare you on how people might vote?

That's interesting, Chuck, because I haven't heard a lot about those two issues.

I mean, there's been fliers out.

There's been a campaign, you know, to say, you know, no to the Constitution part and, you know, keeping money out of politics, which is a great slogan.

But not a lot of peopl are talking about those things.

I'm just not a lot of seen a lot of that, to be honest.

This entire campaign is not a lot of excitement.

You all right about it?

You read about it.

I mean, it's almost like the ballot came out a week and a half ago.

Let's hurry up and get this thing over with.

What are they talking about, Representative?

The people that you're representing.

They're talking about how folks have talked about affordability, and we've never talked about the unaffordabilit of car insurance in my district.

When folks are averaging $7,000 and we've almost said, okay, that's not an issue we're talking about.

We're talking about issues that impact everybody.

So when we talk about disposable income and economic, just stronghold, two things are talk about they're talking about car insurance.

And the other one they'r talking about is property taxes.

Then the other thing I want to ask you about, we talked about if you guys take majority, internally, what do yo what are kind of the projections of what the Senate or the House Democrats could get as far as numbers right now, you're down 58, 52 or 58, 52 as far as seats.

What what's it what's a ceiling you think the Democrats could get?

I'm thinking the ceiling would probably be 60.

Which would would be?

Well, because, I mean, there's no secrets in politics.

We've got different camps and different ideologies that are coming in that we're going to need a few, slots so that folks can go do their own thing.

I'm going to guess that you thought that decision to spend 700,000, $700,000 to take Matt Hall out, probably money that should have gone someplace else?

You know strategically, I'm not involved in those, conversations, but I would say this, let's flip the house, let him come back and he can sit on the sidelines like Joe Tate did for two years after, you know, we lost the house.

I'd much rather have him in session and to sit back, and we can spend that money to to make sure.

Hell, if we spend it right, we can get 62.

So you would you would love to see Matt Hall in the House as a minority leader.

Is that what you're telling me?

Oh, yeah.

I watched Joe Tate for two years, and everything was Joe Tates fault, so I would love, you know, the laws of reciprocity to, come into effect.

Representative, speaking of the majority that you guys held from 2023 to 2024, there was sort of a historic collapse at the end there.

There was a lot of time when you guys weren't meeting during that session.

What what are the lesson learned from that that you guys will take forward if you do wi the majority back in November?

Get it in early.

So when you look back on what we did for the first year, we had 56.

I mean, 56, 54 was already made everybody a mini speaker.

But with that, everybody had to be on board.

And I think folks forget that that first budget, we actually had to get a Republican to vote on that budget.

So when we moved forward, the lessons learned, we got to get it in early because we had two people run for mayors and they left.

So we were 54, 54 for almost an entire year.

And then we get into election campaign season.

So when you look a what we really got done in that first 100 days or that first or 5 months, it was rapid fire.

But after that, it was a, you know, there were coins out saying 54, 54 shared power.

And then we had to wait for elections to get people in and acclimated.

And by then folks had to run for their seats, and we had people leave in the team.

So I think the lesson learned is we need to be ready day one with with our agenda, with with our priorities because we got to move.

Representative driving here on I-96, there's a billboard that says groceries prices are up because of Trump.

Do you believe that's the deciding factor that people are going to vote on this election along with the high gas prices, or are they going to go with what President Trump's supporters are saying?

This is just short term pain for long term gain and long term US security?

I think everyone Chuck votes with their pocketbook.

Whether it's deciding to live in certain cities for school systems, for lower taxes, for lower, you know, for school systems, it always comes down to pocketbook issues.

And the people with the options use those options.

Right now it is touching everyone.

So you can say short term, long term.

But folks are voting in the right now.

And I think tha that Billboard hits the point, because what I said at my kitchen table and look at my bills, I have to figure out, okay, what's the priorities?

Before we could kind of move it around a little bit.

Now, with the economy, this is impacting people on.

So, I mean, the cost of diesel fuel impacts the cost of things being delivered.

So it's all connected.

And I think that the economy and the price of goods and services, will be the big thin that move this, this election.

Representative to that point.

Then next door to you in district two, Joanna Whaley is running.

Have you had a chance to meet her?

Because she has the opportunity to do something that's never happened before.

A transgender person being elected to the state legislature.

We have had an opportunity to cross paths.

Lincoln Park is literally right across the street from my house.

So, you know, in doing intersectional things, I've had the opportunity.

But once, you know, after November, we're all going to sit down and we're going to have those conversations, we able to talk about our priorities.

Right to, Barrhead is in three.

I'm kind of a homer.

And I made sure that we were able to get, a senato to represent this area as well.

That is a part of the, the community.

So been pretty busy doing those things and just trying to make sur that, folks get what they need.

So looking forwar to whoever comes out of there.

And I hope it is.

Whaley because again, gavels matter represented.

Our data center is the sleeper issue of this campaign.

You know, it comes u and it pops up and it pops down.

We just watch what happened with Wayne County, but that's an up and down issue.

The price of, everyday living, I think, is the big issue right now.

And I'm sure once we get past this election, we're going to sit down and have conversations about data centers and where we can put them, and we can manage them with guardrails because they aren't going away.

They aren't going away because we're using data right now with this conversation.

Representative, thanks for joining us on Off the Record.

Is there any Democrat who' really in deep trouble right now that you can name quickly?

Not off my head.

I think tha we we've done enough good work.

That sometimes maintaining a seat is harder than flipping the seat.

So I'm looking at the work that my colleagues have done in what we call the front line seats.

I think they should be in pretty good shape, given the fact of the, lac of popularity by the president.

And I thin we've got some good candidates.

But again, as I said earlier, there's no absolutes.

But I'm looking forward to, all my friends coming back, especially Jim Haadsma.

All right.

I got to do that out here.

Thank you sir.

Also, a thanks to our great panel next week.

More Off The Record right here.

Please join us then.

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