The end is in sight.

And what does it look like during this correspondent's pre-election edition of OTR, you'll get some answers right here.

So sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the Record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in par by Bellwether Public Relations, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

Learn more at bellwetherpr.com.

And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Thank you very much for tuning in.

We're in studio C as we count down the hours and it cant go fast enough.

The hours were counting down now?

That's making progress.

All right, so your Detroit newspaper had them pulling.

Let's do the governor thing first Maug.. What, what's the lead on that?

I mean, the lead out of the poll that Jocelyn Benson, the Democrat, has a significant lead about seven points over John James.

And this was about ten days before Election Day.

You got to keep in mind right now, all of these polls that you see all over the internet, they're making a lot of assumptions about what the electorate is going to look like.

Our poll had a plus two dem advantage, meaning of the people that were surveyed, the 600 people, about two percentage points more were Democrats and Republicans.

There's a chance this electorat looks way different than that.

I mean.

Are these likely voters in the poll?

Yeah, these are likely voters.

We always poll likely voters at the news, 600 likely voters from all over the state, margin of error of plus or minus four points if you want to get into the weeds of it.

But I mean, that's important.

It is important.

But again, they're making assumptions about what the electorate is going to look like.

This could be a very wonky year in Michigan.

You know, I found it interesting.

I took a look at the CNN poll that was released on Thursday and and the US Senate race.

This has become a race about Abdul El-Sayed, the people who are voting for Mike Rogers.

Most of them are doing an anti Abdul El-Sayed vote.

And the people who are voting for Abdul, overwhelmingly, 60 some percent are voting because they really like Abdul El-Sayed he has become the center of this entire campaign.

A little Trumpian.

In a way it kind of is.

It is because the energy is on him.

The all encompassing energy and that, you know, voters are sort of voting fo or against a specific candidate.

It's also sucked most of the air out of the governor's race, certainly has.

You know, I mean, that's that's our meat and potatoes race.

And we I was at an event in Imlay city, the other day.

And John James is essentially essentiall the opening act for Mike Rogers.

Like he came out, fired u the crowd for a couple minutes, and then Ted Cruz and Mike Rogers came out and the crowd really got going.

I mean, that's that's unusual.

The campaign that the Republicans are running against Abdul is unusual.

Have you seen before a campaig that's like this negative based and not giving people something, hey, vote for this vision.

More so vot against this other guy's vision.

And here we are.

Here we are.

I'm trying to lead with the governor's race.

And you took it right away from me.

And I'm not complaining.

Look, I mean, there's been $250 million spent on ads in the U.S.

Senate race.

I think it's up to 260 now.

The governor's race, it's a fraction of that.

It's like $60 million.

So, of course, I mean, we've got national money pouring in here.

There's been 82 uniqu different ads just on the U.S.

Senate race.

This is a 20 some on the governor's race.

It's just it's just been al encompassing and overwhelming.

I think it's also worth saying there's onl so much airtime on television.

And when you have these, like the Senate leadership find, you know, promisin millions of dollars in ad buys even before the primaries even done, how much airtime is left, really, for those ad slots for the governor's race, the governor's candidates to buy, especially when they're expecting to see a down ballot impact anyway, you know from the straight ticket voters and what have you from this Senate race.

So, you know, it doesn't make sens to put that same energy into it.

I don't think any of this is surprising, though.

I mean, ever since the primary and and just, what an intense primary it was on the Democratic side in the US Senate race that that we should be surprised that this is taking all of the oxygen.

It just simply is.

I mean, our elections are nationalized.

Exactly.

Everything is about what's happening in Washington, D.C., and this Senate race is kind of, an example of that and a window into it.

This is how Michigan voters are going to influence what happens in D.C.. I was out at polling places, early voting locations across the state yesterday, and I asked a lot of voters, what candidate are you excited to vote for?

And almost every single one of them, said something about the Senate race, and most of them were saying they were excited to vote for Abdul.

Yeah.

So, did the last weekend we had dueling, speeches.

Yeah.

The dueling presidents.

What did you guys make of that stuff?

It's all about trying to drive people to the polls.

You know, you take a look at the idea of people splitting their ticket, which was not out of the realm of possibility, you know, 20 years ago, you know, when in 2006 when people overwhelmingly voted for Granholm and then they overwhelmingly voted for Mike Cox and Terri Land, that kind of thing doesn't really exist anymore.

I mean, you're in one camp or you're in the other camp, and it's all about driving those camps out.

So you talk about Trump and you talk about Obama.

That's what that was all about.

You get Obama in Detroit and you get the folks who live there excited about voting.

If they weren't excited about Abdul, because, you know, he's not exactl super duper popular in Detroit, but he gets them, gets them out, and then you get Trump in.

Where is the place wher he could be possibly the most, popular?

Well, the 10th congressional is the most Republican.

So let's go ahead and stick them there all about driving people out.

I mean, again, I was at that Obama rally.

I think that Abdul's popularity was on full display there.

You know, it's a common thin we've seen throughout any type of gathering of Democrats, yo know, going back to the spring, endorsement convention, Abdu got the second biggest applause behind Obama.

And, you know, and you would just think that was because Obama had a longer walk up.

I think it's, you know, this is a crowd that is currently lik Abdul has the Democratic base.

And so, like I said, this was about showing unity within Democrats.

You know, some of the holdouts, some of them may be Stevens primary voters.

You know, Obama saying it's okay that Abdul criticized me in the past and combatin some of those ads that you see conservative running against him saying, oh, a dual criticized the first black president, versus the Trump rally.

It seemed like that was more abou turning out the Republican base, because that's who he needs to show up for.

Theyre still concerned about that.

They're afrai that some of the MAGA folks up north are going to stay up north and not go south.

Yeah.

Spot on.

And and honestly, that Trum event on Sunday in Port Huron, I think that was a boon for the Republicans.

I mean, there was a lot of chatter about Democrats saying, hey bring on Trump, bring him here.

Let's make him the center of this.

But they do have a systemic problem.

If you talk to Republicans in Michigan, they're incredibly worrie about their base voters, people that normally vote Republican, simply not either one not showing up or to voting for Democrats they are concerned about.

If they talk about it honestly, they need Trump to come here to fire people up to remind Trump is still Trump is still for whatever you want to say about him.

He is still a good messenger for republicans.

Look at it.

He talks about the economy in way that when JD Vance comes here, he doesn't talk about the economy.

Usually he's talking about Abdu and criticizing the Democrats.

Trump at least can cast a positive vision still on some things for the party.

Z just for a second, to underscore this point in other states, his job approval is in the low 30s.

Is 42% in Michigan.

Yeah, depending on the poll, it's still not great.

But at least like you got to get these base voters to turn out we're in.

This could be really bad for republicans.

They just it's not just bas voters.

It's men voters.

Yeah.

Non-college voters okay.

Those are the people that they won.

Spot on.

Its these low propensity voters.

Right.

Who came out.

Who normally wouldn't vote.

Exactly.

And this is what you have to come out now and do.

And the thing is, I don't think Mike Roger necessarily revs that group up.

No right.

What revs them up i the anti-Muslim stuff, you know, bringing out, the night, the the flight 93 survivors.

Dad out there is what run people up trying to relate him, Abdul El-Sayed to terrorism.

That's the only thing they got to can't really talk about the economy because gas is $5.

You can't talk about that.

You can't talk about the tariffs because we're getting hammered with those.

So you can't.

So almost if you look at the Republican ads, none of them are talking about the economy anymore because they can't.

It's a loser for them.

The only thing they've got and the only thing they've been hearing about is that Abdul's dangerous.

And whether that was early in the campaign when he hated, allegedly Mackinac Island and football, or now they're talking about how, you know, he's equivalent to a jihadist.

I mean, that's the card that they have to play.

But the double edged sword there is well, they're appealing to that side.

The independent voters are going, what?

That's the catch 22 that defines this election for Michigan Republicans.

They have to appeal to Democrats.

I mean keep an eye out over the weekend.

See how many ads you see fro Republicans targeting Democrats.

And then also think about this fact that they need their base to show up and they're worried about that.

So they need Trump here.

But when they bring Trump here, they lose some of these independent voters.

So if you're a Michigan Republican, what do you do?

I mean, how do you try to win this election?

You try to do both things and hope that the whole thing doesn't fall apart.

And that's what we're seeing right now.

I've got to, go ahead.

No I was just going to say, I think in 2024, you saw Trump carry this coalition.

And that's how he won the state.

I mean, it's a lot harde to keep that coalition together when you're showing a lot of ads with Abdul next to, you know, the images from 9/11 wreckage, you know.

Well what he did is he got those young people, young men who normally don't vote, and he was able to get enough of them to actually override the independent vote, which was going to the deep.

And we all went, that's something.

You know, I mean, that's what's so interesting.

Yes.

I mean, these young male voters are now switching their allegiance to Abdul.

People the people that were frustrated with the economy two years ago voted for Donald Trump.

The people who are frustrated with the economy now are voting for Democrats.

And that's at the end of the day.

That's that's a massive hurdle for them.

I was thinking about this last night.

Why was the race between Slotkin and Rogers so close?

And this one appears not to be.

Because that one was substantive.

That was actually a race abou issues where Rogers and Slotkin were debating issues.

If you looked at that, would TV debate back in 24.

And that was a fantastic, back and forth about the issues of the day.

This is not there is n there is no substantive issues.

And this is not a seminar on government?

You know, you know, the Colin and I were talking before he came in here about how this is like Thanksgiving dinner, you finally had your full an there's still a bunch of food.

Everything's still left over.

And you can't you can't consume anymore.

You're so oversaturated with this election.

You guys keep going.

We had a election was a referendu on Joe Biden and the Democrats.

This election is a referendum on Donald Trump.

And he's wanted it that way.

It's two.

Totally.

He said as much.

I mean, it's two totally different elections about what's driving voters.

And that's why that election was close.

And even in that, that's what you got to think about when you keep keep coming back to this.

Even in that environment, Donald Trump wins at the top of the ticket.

There's this turnout of voters, low propensity Trump voters that a lot of pollsters didn't see coming, and they stil lost the Senate race that year.

That's what Mike Rogers is up against this year, in a totally worse environment for.

The cynicism of American politics right now, especially what you're seeing right now in this race, is yo can't stick, you can't stick it.

Let someone like Elissa Slotkin, who comes from the intelligence community with the same she hates America type argument that you can attempt to stick, you know, Abdul El-Sayed, who was an American born, son of Egyptian immigrants.

Its part of the cynicism of all this.

What's the significance of Haley Stevens appearing with Mr.

El-Sayed this weekend?

I think it's an attempt by the El-Sayed campaign to try to silence some of this narrative that's mostly playing out on cable news, that there's this faction of Haley Stevens, voters that aren't going to vote for Abdul.

So they're trying to put them together to say, here, you should vote for Abdul because of this, whether that has any impact on the ground.

I'm a little, skeptical.

Leave no stone unturned.

It's like cotton candy.

There's some conversations about, you know, is support for Abdul lighter than it should be in Detroit.

So they will rally in Detroit on Sunday with Jim Clyburn, the congressman.

I think to Craig's point, though, I think the folks holding their breath waiting for, what's going to happen has a lot to do with, cable news hosts the then voters here on the ground.

At to that point you know, rallying with Detroit.

I don't think of a better messenger to turn out Detroit voters than Barack Obama.

And every single person I talked to at that rally was head over heels.

Where they geeked?

Very much.

So what does it translate to votes?

I think when you talk about who the most likely people to vote are, it's going to be, you know, the older folks, I think when you talk abou the most reliable demographics for Democrats has been black voters.

And every auntie I talked to was for Abdul.

Let's talk about voting with Mark Grebner, who's a guy who knows a lot about voting.

Let's see what he's got to say about this early voting going on in Michigan.

Nationwide, s far, some 35 million voters in 46 states do not have to show up on Election Day.

They have already voted.

Texas leads the nation with million of those early voters.

Michigan is ranked number five in the nation, behind California, Florida and North Carolina.

But in Michigan, with is 1.39 million absentee and early voting citizens.

Michigan actually leads in the Great Lakes region.

Michigan is 31% higher than the vote count in 2022.

In Ohio, it was 28, Indiana, 23, Illinois 19, Wisconsin 19, and Minnesota 16% higher.

Of those voters, 44% are Democrat and about 31% are Republicans.

Independents in the early vote account for about 25% of that vote.

So what does this mean?

This East Lansing political wizard concludes, because the easier voting system actually favors the Democrats who take advantage of it over the Republicans, who generally are not.

So what does that mean?

There is a small Democratic benefit to this system that that the Republican have managed to create a world in which their people use method which are slightly less likely to result in them voting a slight edge, but but nothing that we see so far tells us anything about the election.

In an interesting twist 52% of the 35 million nationwide who have voted early did so in person, compared to only 48% voting by mail.

Eventually, Republican Part Chair Jim Runestad will see most of his voters show up on Election Day, and he's hoping in large enough numbers to surpass, if you will, all those Democrats voting early the Election Day vote in Michigan will be slightly tipped toward Republicans, which reduces the political outcome on Tuesday to a very simple formula based on turnout, turnout and, well, fill in the blank.

Look the Democrats are goin to see our people are voting in huge numbers.

We are winning the enthusiasm race.

But what Mark is basically saying there, it's a wash because the Republican will show up in larger numbers on Election Day.

And who knows?

You're your nobody's buying this?

I mean.

I think it's really hard in this year to make those types of predictions because I mean, these experts like Mark, are modeling who the people are that are showing up and they're assuming because of how people have voted before that that's ho they're going to vote this year.

Whenever you hear those numbers, that's what they're doing.

We don't have party registration in Michigan.

Some of the othe states are mentioned.

They do.

So they're they're guessing on how people are going to vote could be way wrong.

I think, you know it could rain on Election Day.

What if it rains on election?

That's the point.

What if there's a blizzard?

Yeah, but it's been great weather, hasn't it?

I mean, this is not a fantastic October.

It's not.

You know, a lot of this to though, is just getting people.

Are you suggesting God is a Republican?

I don't know, but it's been great weather to be outside in October.

I can't, it's amazing.

But I will say this though, a lot of this is just changin people's personal voting habits.

I think, you know, when we first started getting into early voting and in the push to do Mail-In voting, obviously there was a lot of recoil by Donald Trump and Republicans.

And since then there's been a rewiring of people in that, you know what?

If it fits into your schedule, that it's better for you to just get it in the mail?

Then let's go ahead and do that.

I mean, now you can just go ahead and sign up and be part of the permanent absentee list and just get your mail just on, or you're automatically sent to you.

You don't even have to fill out an application.

I mean, we've just made it so easy.

And so I understand what Grebner is saying, but I also think that this is just a personal preference type thing.

And now there's just so many different, easy ways to do it that I don't even think it's specific by party anymore.

There's so many more ways than for this president or whomever to call fraud, which is another issue that I think everyone needs to be on high alert for, which is, you know, that are we already seeing laying the groundwork for, you know, if this is a big Democrati wave, Republicans calling fraud.

All right.

Let me throw on the table the year 1990, the weekend before the election.

Jim Blanchard according to The New York Times, has a 20 point lead over John Engler.

They both show up on Tuesday, Election Day, and John Anger wins by 17,000 votes.

My point is, is there a Blanchard Engler dynamic which we're missing in this race?

I think that anyone looking at this rac has anything other than close.

And I mean this for both the Senate race and the governor's race.

You know, where we've seen Benson have a slight edge throughout the entire race.

But she was at 14 points at one point.

I you know, the aggregate said it would be Stevens by 10%.

My thing on that would be you know, the common idea is that this is close.

I think the possibility of what happens here is this gets really bad for Republicans.

That could be the surpris that we see if Republican voters stay home in any level, and then Democrat voters show up on Election Day in ways that we're not supporting, who's more likely as Democrats to show up on Election Day, the young voters.

So if there's a big turnout of youth voters on the college campuses on Election Day, that could be a huge problem for Republicans.

So, I mean, when you talk about what could be the surprise and if you talk about Republicans, talk to Republican about what they're fearing right now, that's what they're fearing.

They're going to lose their base.

And then there's going to be a big turnout of Democrats.

Yeah, it's all about the tricky thing is the modeling.

Yeah, exactly.

I mean, exactly who is going to show up.

And Abdul is bringing out such a different coalition and so many different parts of the state that it may be just hard to pinpoint the enthusiasm that he's bringing out in places like Heart in Oceana County.

I mean, places that we wouldnt think.

The Upper Peninsula.

Yes.

I spoke to Dennis Darnley, who tracks absentee voting this week, and he said a lot of what's happening in Michigan right now with absente ballot returns looks like 2022.

But he said the places it doesn't look like 2022 are Upper Peninsula and northern Michigan, and it looks more Democratic than it has in 2022.

What happened in 2022?

Whitmer Governor Whitmer won by ten points.

So if it's if Republicans are ceding ground, they're a bunch of a bunch of data points pointing to this that they're going to do worse in the U.P.

in northern Michigan, that's a massive problem for them.

If there is that realignment.

You have to go back to the years of Bart Stupak, Rusty Hellman, Dominic Jacob Vette.

It used to be the most competitive congressional district in the country.

The first?

Yeah, the first district.

That wasn't that long ago.

Yeah.

But one of the things I'm watching is you're seeing this realignment in Iowa too.

Iowa, and the U.P.

and Northern Michiga have a lot of things in common in terms of agriculture being big and both having this histor of voting Democratic in the past and now being reliably Republican.

I mean, these are just some trends to watch.

There are some consistencies between this area of Michigan and some of the other states where you're seeing Republicans have a problem.

Don't forget the Democrats are spending money in that first congressional district.

You know, they spent there was maybe I don't know, I think it was Illinois.

So it was a tiny amount where They used to just kiss it off.

They did.

It' well over $1 million this year.

Kaylee Barr is actually outspending Jack Bergman because she's getting money from DC.

But I wonder, too, how much of that strategy is just to convince Republicans to spend their money making sure that their home is safe instead of spending mone in some of these battlegrounds?

Well its what they're having to do across the country, though, I mean, and it's it's why you saw, you know, sort of shoc at where the president was going is he's going to red states, I mean, having to to go and campaign in places that he wo by, you know, 12, 14, 16 points.

Well, in the reverse of that is JD Vance, who comes in to purple Michigan.

You've you seen how wel and here's what happened there.

Somebody in the crowd jokingly noted one more trip to Michigan, and the vice president thought he might have to pay the nonresident income tax.

He did talk taxes in his speec and told the crowd, Republicans want to cut them.

No news there.

But there was some news here on cars.

Let's just say he's not a big fan of allowing the Chinese to build cars in Michigan, saying it's all about Americans making cars, not the Chinese.

So if the Chinese saying, okay, we'll hire American workers in Lansing or Detroit, let us come in.

We have to ask ourselves, what is in the best interest of American workers?

You could imagine a Chinese company coming in and stealin American intellectual property, coming in and undercutting the wages of American workers who already exist here.

Shifting gears, with four young kids at home, their daddy is concerne about their use of cell phones.

When they get old enough to do that, he says he'll place restrictions on his children.

But what about all those children in the K through 12 classroom?

It's a decision obviously local schools have to make, but I'm a big fan in getting this stuff out of our schools entirely.

We're not going to force that.

A political question involving a certain Michigan governor.

If Gretchen Whitmer runs fo president, could you beat her?

Hahaha, man, I'm so focused on 2026.

Do you like that question?

It's a tough.

Question.

Look, she she she's obviously a unique character.

So you want to punt on the Whitmer question?

I'm going to punt on that question.

I didn't punt, he did.

The question was Gretche Whitmer running for president?

Could you beat her?

Yeah.

Do these events make any difference at all, other than a feel good hole or a healthy halo effect that we had?

You know.

You got to do something.

You got you have.

to do something.

No you dont.

Just acknowledg that these are a waste of time.

No, they're not they're not a waste of time.

You've got to show you've got to show motion in order to get movement.

You know, I mean, if you didn't, then we would be criticizing them for doing nothing.

So.

You've got you've got to fill these venues too.

And I think the Trump event specifically that he had in Port Huron, I think that was like a major sign of some momentum for Republicans.

They needed something like that.

And the president came in, got a massive crowd in Por Huron that was really positive.

There were 6000 people outside.

There's a huge line outside.

It showed that there were people that were still excited to vot for his agenda and support him.

The fact that Trump doesn' appear to be coming here again, they had planned for him to come on Monday, and now it's not happening.

Bad signal.

I think That's bad for Republicans.

I think that is a sign that, hey, you know, our base is not going to have this las moment that they've always had in Michigan to really get excited.

I, I think it's something to watch.

Remember, on two occasion his last stop was in Michigan.

Three?

Three.

Yeah.

All three times are absolutely.

What did you make of that?

I, I was surprised, that he decided to do that.

But again, this is sort of the narrative through a number of different states that he's now turning to tell a rally is in these, Uber red states, and Michigan is not an Uber red state.

We are a purple state that needs, at least for Republicans to see some turnout.

I think that a smile an a handshake or a photo is worth significantly more than any negative ad or any amount of TV buy that you can send.

And so as I walked out of the roo after that interview in the line where all the local police people ready to go in, you get a picture.

Oh yeah.

Yeah, exactly.

And that's what I'm saying.

Greg, what are you doing in there as well?

Yeah.

Well, go get your pictures, guys.

All right.

That's the point of this rally.

Right?

I want to switch quickly to legislative races.

House, Senate.

What's going to happen?

Well, I think the Senate, the state Senate, the state Senate is lookin pretty good for the Democrats.

I mean, they're.

Picking up seats.

They pick up 1 or 2.

I wouldn' be surprised to pick up 1 or 2.

They're at 2018 majority right now.

If they finish at 21 or 2 seats, I wouldn't be surprised.

The house is a little bit more of a dogfight because there are many more incumbents who are running, and so the races are a bit more competitive.

The Democrats, if they don't take majority, would have to feel like this is a massive failure.

I mean, anything other than majority, I think for them is a disappointment.

It's been fascinating watching Jocelyn Benson, campaig with this idea of down ballot, right, with this idea of trifecta on her mind.

Shes going into those district where it might have coattails.

Yeah, exactly.

Exactly.

House Republicans are running on this idea that they have these grea candidates that can withstand, a Democratic maybe not a wave, but a push across the state.

But if all these races are nationalize and what I'm hearing from voters when I'm out there talking to them is it's all about Trump.

If people are going ther to vote against Trump, that's a that's a warning sign for the House, too.

Just one quick thing.

I heard radio ad where the Republican runnin from Battle Creek, took credit for the property tax spike, sponsored the property tax thing.

What they left out was it never passed.

Just a minor point.

Theyre not passing many laws.

So you got to kind of take credit for things that.

Ran out of gas here, guys.

Thank you.

A lot of great great program.

Thank you for watching, folks.

See you here for more off the record next week.

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