During thi correspondent's edition of OTR, we look at candidates who may be breaking with the president on the war.

So sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the Record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in par by Bellwether Public Relations, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

Learn more at bellwetherpr.com.

And now, this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Welcome back to Off the Record studio C, the U.S.

Senate race.

Mike Rogers, did he distance himsel from the president on the war?

Let's talk about that first.

The war in Ira is not only a military problem for President Trump back home.

Domestically, it's a political problem, as some Republicans are worrie that the fallout from that war is seen, like everyday people as a major problem at the pump and at the grocery stores, which is why some national Republicans are distancing themselves from the president.

The Republican U.S.

Senate candidate in Michigan, Mike Rogers, is now running a new ad that says the war in Iran needs to end quickly.

And then, he adds, when it does, this will happen.

When it does, energy costs will plummet.

But Michigan families can't afford to wait for that to happen.

We need to do something now.

Pollster Bernie Porn believes tha this is an attempt to separate from President Trump.

It sure is.

And, Im just wondering what took him so long.

At the same time, youve got, President Trump saying that, just fairly.

recently, it's, probably not going to end until after the, midterm elections.

However, could the messag have been clearer and stronger?

What would have happened if he had said, Mr.

President, end this war now?

That would be stronger.

And that would be something that, I would think would not be walking the line so delicately, as, the statement, would suggest that he just put out.

So he wants to have it both ways.

It would seem so.

The Democratic U.S.

Senate candidate doctor El-Sayed, is calling Mr.

Rogers a flip flopper fo changing his stance on the war.

At one point, he voted to continue the president's authority to do that.

Now he wants an end.

But the challenge for Republicans is that even though th president is not on the ballot, see what he does can impact the outcome with other candidates.

Pollste Richard Czuba puts it this way.

Midterm elections are referendums on the incumbent president except in the rare exceptions.

And I can only think of two in the last 50 years.

And in the latest Sussex poll this week, doctor El-Sayed has a seven point lead over Mr.

Rogers.

That is beyond the margin of error.

All right, so here's the question.

Was his statemen a separation from the president?

Absolutely.

I mean, the president says, first of all, it's not a war.

Now we have his hand-picked Senate nominee saying it is a war.

And the president says we got to keep doing this.

In fact, I think he told the U.N.

we're going to annihilate Iran.

And now we have a guy saying, well, let's just get out of Iran.

So I guess we're going to leave some behind.

I don't think wishing for world peace, however, is, politically controversia or courageous position to take.

And I think, you know, there's a lot of art in the language there.

The question is whether, you know, you want the Iran, the war with Iran to end, but on what terms and on whom is the onus to ensure that that conflict comes to a conclusion?

That's really, I think, where the sticking point is.

You're getting closer to the truth.

I think you asked in your clip if he's trying to have it both ways.

And I think that's true because another comments on conservative news stations, for example, and interviews, he's sayin while we still need to alleviate the nuclear threat, which is very similar to what Trump has been saying, so he wants people to thin that he is splitting from Trump.

But then perhaps he's also trying to, mollify Republicans who might be concerned that he's breaking from Trump in some way.

He's saying this war is raising prices for people and we need to end the war.

He's not saying that this war was a mistake and that we shouldn't hav started this in the first place.

And I think that's a key difference, where if he was really breaking with Trump and really criticizing it, he would have questioned wh we're there in the first place.

Well, the masterful part of this statement is if you're following this stuff as you are and you think that's an obvious freak if you're Joe Sixpack or Josephine Sixpack sitting at home watching it.

What in that statemen distanced him from Donald Trump?

Nada.

There was not a word that you could take back and say boy this guy, I guess he doesn't like Donald Trump.

So the masterful part of this is he didn't do it, but we did it for him.

When the spot came out everybody and their uncle said, oh, he's breaking with Donald Trump.

So we had it both ways.

He didn't have to say it.

We did the job for him.

Am I right or wrong?

He's also using some of the Trump administration's talking points during this when he says, when we end the war, gas prices are going to go down.

Everything's going to be cheaper again.

Yeah, that's the Trum administration talking points.

So it's you know, the break is I guess, there in terms of the timeline in the Trump administration basically saying Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

He's not saying that.

But I mean, the political reality is that as a Republican, to win in Michigan, you need the MAGA base and more.

And so if you're breaking with the president, if you're publicly contradicting him, that's something that I think is might depress some of those voters.

But at the same time, you know, you go to the gas pump if if Mr.

Czuba is correct in this thesis, that midterm is always a referendum on the president, the state of the economy righ now is something that's really just favorable for.

Well youre right but if he needs independen voters, did independent voters look at this and say, he's our guy?

I think anybody who looked at that said, where you been?

Because I think even the MAGA base, they said, we don't wan these endless foreign conflicts.

So I think you can you can break with the president on Iran and still save yoursel with the hardcore Red hat guys.

But the problem is this is too late.

There's a freedom fuel tha opened, by my house a month ago.

Within three weeks, it was up a dollar a gallon.

Within three weeks, it's up a dollar again.

You know, I think if you care about the fuel prices, if you care about our blood and treasure and all that other stuff, it's too late to say you want to end the war in Iran now.

You needed to be there in the beginning.

Yeah.

I think Abdul El-Sayed can make that point successfully because he has consistently been against the war in Iran and called for an end to the conflict.

And so him going out in front of a gas station was also a very politically calculated move.

He's right in front of this sign of gas being extraordinarily high for the area.

And I think there's also something to be said about, you know, the confidence that Mike Rogers has that the volatility in gas prices will just stop if the conflict stops.

I don't know tha anyone can necessarily promise the future of gas prices.

So, Abdul El-Sayed is makin a, you know, much stronger point in terms of the war ending and also being against the conflict in the first place.

And what guaranteed we hav that once the war is ended, that the Iranians are not going to charge a toll to go through the Strait of Trump.

And one of the things I've been seeing with Roger is it really strikes me as the commercial about affordability.

First of all, he's carrying a hand basket, not pushing the cart because nobody can afford to fill their grocery cart these days.

But Trump doesn't want to talk about affordability.

Here's Roger talk about end the war in Iran.

He's talking about affordability.

In Detroit we get a lot of ads on our streaming services where he's talking about lowering prescription prices.

That suggests to me that he's seen some polling that says El-Sayed is winning on health care and affordability and now he's chasing that issue.

He's trying to take that issue of, I will try and make health care affordable for all, like affordable for.

I wonder who else is saying that.

I think he's worried, and I think he's trying to close a gap.

Maybe that's the thing that we've seen this whole election cycle, though.

A while ag when they announced that Roger, how it could be servin as the next Republican leader, he talked to me about affordability being one of the key issues fo Senate Republicans this cycle.

When I think about Abdul standing in front of the gas pumps, I think about four years ago we had Tom Barrett doing the exact same thing, running against Elissa Slotkin for this congressional seat.

It's these aren't new moves and new tactics.

What I think would have been more striking, you know, we had another War Powers Resolution vote in Congress this week, right?

I think if we saw Roger say, you know, I would have supported tha or something along those lines, that to m would have been more striking.

Well, Mr.

Porn also thinks that Mr.

Rogers is starting to sound like a Democrat.

When he stood in front of the.

You may have a bridge with the prescription drug.

Knowing in the back of his mind, the Big Pharma has sent him a boatload of money, and now all of a sudden he's against Big Pharma?

Several years ago, I went on a press junket with the Bernie Sanders campaign, where he crossed the bridge an people who were getting insulin for their diabetes were making a point that it was so much cheaper across the bridge in Canada.

And to see Mike Rogers have that same exact point a few years later was pretty striking to me.

Is there a disconnect?

Yeah, I think we've seen Barrett try and put some space between himself and the president.

You know, not going to the convention and some of these other issues.

I think Republicans right now are sensing that they they they hung with Trump to hold on to power.

But now if they cling to him they're all going down together.

Well, can't, can't all these candidates go to the president and say, look, we love the president.

We're with him.

But you understand we have a problem here.

Yes?

I mean, it's too late at this point.

I mean, you're you're tied.

Wait a second.

We got a long way to go.

Absentee ballots are in the mail.

I mean, they're they're already reaching voters right now.

Voting season has begun.

So I think for the most part these candidates are have to be relatively static in their positions.

It's not this is not like a moment in our campaign season to make a reinvention.

You you can't have a conversion on the way to Damascus?

You can try.

But I mean, a lot of those ballots they've filled out there in the mail, it's too little, too late.

I think that this now is about sort of you're on like sort of an exit trajectory for a lot of these campaigns.

You've decided what you think your winning electoral coalition is, and you have to try to nail down those voters and make sure that they turn out for you, whether or not that, you know, that theory is correct.

But for these campaigns, it's difficult, especially with the economic circumstances.

I'd be really interested to see if Trump comes to Michigan before the end of the cycle.

We have seen, surrogates like JD Vance, some members of his cabinet.

But I think I think it will be very telling, because Trump has used every opportunity to come to Michigan and so if he doesn't in this general election cycle, that would be interesting.

I would think the only reason it might move up the agenda if the sag, the MAGA base was beginning to sag in your campaign then you bring the big guy in.

Yeah I think, I don't know that, he's going to worry about whether he's invited.

If he wants to come, he's going to come.

And I think the notion of, well, we're going to go talk to the president.

We're going to go down to Mar-A-Lago, we'll make our pilgrimage and say, you know, hey, boss, we love you but you're bringing us all down.

I think his answer is going to be, who are you?

I only care about me.

Trump pushes Trump's agenda, and if you're not on board, he'll run you over.

And if you fall off the wagon, he'll leave you behind.

And Mike Rogers was in Texas.

He was at Trump's, terms political convention.

Went to the convention.

So he can't decide.

This is the thing.

If you're going to break thi late.

And I think Simon's right, people are making up their minds.

If you're going to make a break, it better be dramatic.

You better say, I'm going to go in.

The first piece of legislation I'm going to pass is to end the war.

I will end the war.

This sort of like, yeah, we don't need this.

We get nobody wants a half measure.

Okay.

I think M.L.

is right.

I don't think people are really like looking at squishy language at this point and sort of like trying to thread that needle.

That doesn't matter that much to voters.

I mean, if you're not going to be if you're not going to turn yourself into, like, Lisa Murkowski or Susan Collins in the next couple of weeks, then I think sort of this little bi of like modulating your position and it's not going to have that big of an impact.

MAGA does not look for statesmen.

They want black or white.

It has to be decisive.

It has to be strong.

You're squishy.

Get out.

That means you're trans.

You're woke.

Forget it.

We hate you guys.

What of the polling data?

Is right?

You know, we saw wha the polling show on aggregate.

Abdul, up like ten points on Haley Stevens ahead of the general election.

I think what we see oftentimes is some polls with sometimes big margins of error, that we see a lot of these polls with sometimes, you know, 4 or 5, 6% margin of error that show up Abdul up.

And we think, okay, all the polling has this huge lead.

He must be ahead.

And Michigan is going to be close regardless just the nature of the state.

I don't see this being a blowout.

Even if Abdul is ahead in reality.

Can you can you guys help me out here?

Why do we see that somebody has a lead in the opening paragraph of a race?

Pick the candidates.

All right.

And then we do a dive, and it's within the margin of error.

Isn't that misleading the public?

That is not a lead.

It absolutely is.

It is a lead?

No, it's not a lead.

It absolutely is misleading.

Well, then why do we do that?

It's in the first sentence.

X candidate has a lead because they find the 54.

They do and the results of that poll.

But the margin of erro means that there's a 95% chance.

That it's not accurate.

That the actual answer somewhere within this range outcome.

Then why don't we say that in the lead?

Because that's really boring and nerdy.

For the most part.

It also says things like of likely voters and voters over propensity to vote.

I mean, polling i and campaigns are like rivers.

You stand in them and the water flows.

So on this day, this is what's happening.

But but there's a date where where the snapshot is the one that counts, the poll that actually counts votes.

Not likely voters or voter with a high propensity to vote.

But you know, anybody who's making up their mind based on a poll, if you didn't vote for, El-Sayed because you figured out he's got this, he's going to kill Slotkin.

Boy, you're lucky that your man made it.

Forget the polls.

Forget the let the candidates look at the polls.

If you have somebody you support, you go vote for him.

All right.

The Michigan House speaking on the gas issue.

Tried the Democrats today.

Had to fight this week in the House to try to pass the gas tax.

How'd that go?

Well, not well, we I think I think, at this point, u seeing a pause on the gas tax, whether it's state or whether it's federal especially before the midterm, is extremely politically unlikely.

Obviously, it sounds good for people who are facing high gas taxes to maybe say oh, well, there's some relief.

But at the federal level, I just don't see there being a vote in time.

There's still some concerns from people about the highway fund at the state level.

It would blow a hole in the state budget.

And road repairs are such a huge issue in Michigan that, you know, making the cas for like some temporary relief.

We're not even sure how much relief the average could it.

There's a lot of complications with suspending a gas tax.

When would you put it back?

That kind of thing.

The the potential marginal benefits do not outweigh the fact that we would be losing millions and millions of dollars for road repairs.

There you go.

Arguing the facts on an emotional issue.

Miss Gibbons.

I'm sorry.

I care about policy.

Yes, well, you're probably th only one in the state who does.

Not really.

Advantages of this have also declined over time because of the economic circumstances.

We're in such a volatile moment right now.

When you see over the course of a week you know as M.L.

noted.

You see gas prices fluctuating 50, 75, even a whole dollar that you cut, like, you know, a 50 cent gas tax that we're a few weeks out from the election, people aren't going to be easily able to say, oh, that change.

I can attribute tha to my member of the legislature.

My member of Congress.

Yeah.

I mean, it was, what, less than three months ago that we were at the Capitol having an all night sleepover lock in saying we had to pinch pennies.

The state's low on money.

We got us.

We got to make up for budget deficits, etc.

and so cutting a major stream of revenue, especially for celebrate a stream of revenue for roads this close to that doesn't feel politically possible.

Yeah thats true.

Your undermining the signature achievement of that Matt Hall last yea in this bipartisan roads.

Deal.

So why didn't Matt Hall just allow a vote and everybody could vote yes and send it to the Senate where it would die?

Then they get exactly what they need to go on on the campaign trail.

By golly, folks we tried to lower your gas tax and those bills.

Son of a gun over in the Senate killed it.

Why not play that game?

Oh, and they di on other pieces of legislation.

But I think that this is something of a policy achievement, a legislative accomplishment that Matt Hall remains proud of.

Well, the Democrats will go back, I and say, we tried to reach ou to Matt Hall, killed it.

Yeah.

But I mean, Republicans try that in 2022.

Like it didn't really go anywhere.

I mean, I just don't see this being a politically prudent issue to the same way, especially when we've seen gas prices be varying between 450 and $5 a gallo for the last like seven months.

I'm not saying that doesn't hurt any less than any more or less than it did back in February, but I think there's a certain level of people just kind of got used to it.

And now, like there's a new base level that people are willing to accept at the pump.

I also just have a hard time thinking that the Fix the Damn Roads governo would actually sign legislation suspending the state gas tax she has.

Earlier this year, she said that she would support a federal pause if something like that were to come up.

I think that's a pretty common refrain we're seein from a lot of people like, well, you know, if we have to suspen a gas tax, suspend the federal.

Not saying that that wouldn't also have an impact on road repairs around the country but I think the immediate impact of losing money for roads would would be felt a little bit less.

This is the thing that's always perplexed me, right?

The federal gas tax is, I believe, $0.18.

So you suspend it.

Gas goes down $0.18.

A day later it's up $0.18 again because of like everything that we've been experiencing, what is even gained there?

You've gained some good relations with the voters back home.

I tried, I tried boys and girls.

I tried my best.

But to that point, when people already drive across town for gas, that's maybe $0.12 cheaper.

Even.

Like last night I was visiting, I was hanging out with a friend in Lansing, and when I was leaving, I stopped at a gas station.

I pay like $4.69.

A few, like maybe five minutes down the road.

It was $4.54, you know.

So that's the difference in in suspending the gas tax in some of these cases, you know.

All right.

Let me take you back to the U Senate race in Doctor El-Sayed.

Yet how is he doing on bringing the Jewish coalition back in or portions of it?

Well, he he's made his his apology for saying, you know, hurt people, hurt people.

And he's tried to make amends there, but as I said on this show, sometime ago, right after the primary, Hassan Piker continues to be a burden to him, and he is not doing anything to, I think, alleviate the concerns that he and Hassan Piker see the world the same way.

What about the non negotiable statement that is out ther from part of the Jewish segment saying, here's what you have t do in order to get our support?

Yeah, I mean there's certainl there are bright dividing lines right now.

It's important, you know, you can't represent Jewish voters as a monolith.

There are voters who have different views and sort of like how they feel about the state of Israel, how they feel about especially the government o the state of Israel at present.

And I think that there's sort of bright lines that for some of these folks, some of these folks are unequivocal non conditional supporters of Israel.

And so unless you are able to stan on that same ground with them, you'r not going to have their support.

And so you have to at a certain point cut your losses.

Because of course this is also a hugely motivating factor for the left.

The idea, the opposition to military aid for Israel, given what we've seen in the war in Gaza, that's movin and motivating a lot of voters, especially key parts of that, I think both sides going to rely on for an electoral coalition, which is college age progressive voters.

And I think there wa a recent letter that was signed by a few hundred Jewish voters, led by the Levin.

Sandy Levin put out a statement in particular, saying that they would prefer to see a Democrat instead of Mike Rogers, even if there ar some disagreements.

Dana Nessel.

Well, yeah, even if there are some disagreements on foreign policy issues, there are a lot of people in that Jewish Democratic coalition who are still concerned about Mike Rogers.

I don't think that the concern at this point is necessarily that, you know, sure, there ar probably some who might consider or may in fact break for Mike Rogers to a split vote.

I think the real concern is if somebody skips that on their ballot or if they don't show up at all.

I think nonnegotiable is trying the same thing we saw listed in Michigan or uncommitted, due to years ago, with the presidential race and some of the things that non-negotiable was asking, you know, just for like, softer languag when you're criticizing Israel.

I don't think those things are so crazy to ask for.

But the thing is when we talked about uncommitted or listened to Michigan, that was much more than just Arab voters who were backing that plan.

And I'm not saying it's just Jewish voter who are backing non-negotiable, but I think the halo effect around that campaign is a lot less than what we're seeing.

Because like, to Simon's point, there has been a lot of criticism against the Israeli government for a long time.

Well, this becomes a critical issue because the last U.S.

Senate race was very close.

What was it 3/10 of a percent of the votes?

That's a very thin line.

So you know, a couple of votes here or there could decide this thing.

He did, trot out a letter that he had a 500, Jewish people decided they counterac the 300 that were in the paper.

Obviously, he's still aware that he's got a problem.

Is that a fair statement?

I mean, especially in the Temple Israel crowd.

Like they're not happy about this.

There was a story in the Free Press earlier, not the Detroit Free Press, but yeah, there was a story about that.

We know the Temple Israel folks are still very was so unhappy with Abdul and the way he talked about that.

But again, Jewish voters are 130.

There's 130,00 Jews in the state of Michigan.

It's a significant they're an active part of the electorate, but it's not necessarily an election deciding portion of the electorate, unless we are really coming down to a hair's edge.

All right.

We have Matt Hall in a nasty figh with the hospital association.

Let me just say, in one corner you have the hospitals who are about to spend over $2 million to get Republicans to lose control of the Michigan House in the upcoming election.

Then you have the speaker of the House thinking about in October passing legislation that the hospital people don't want which is taking away mandatory overtime for nurses, is what the two sides are doing to each other.

And it's getting ugly.

For well over a year, the Hous Republican Speaker, Matt Hall, has been attacking the Michigan Hospital Association, including calling for its CEO to be fired.

Yeah, one of the biggest lies I'm hearing are from the hospitals and I really think they should consider replacing their leadership.

That is his name, Brian Peters.

Not not a very good leader.

He's leading their organization in a direction toward the Democrat Party.

But this week, a group of citizens supporting the hospitals is preparing to spend $2.5 million to unseat five House Republicans.

And if successful, Democrats will control the House next year.

And Mr.

Hall will not be speaker.

Two veteran political observers in town are commenting on what's unfolding.

Sounds like the speaker is.

Playing a game.

Of chicken with the hospitals, but.

He's trying to get them to back off.

A little bit.

And here's the message the speaker might send the hospitals.

Later next month he might move on legislation the hospitals definitely do not want.

The legislation would remove mandatory overtime that the hospitals could impose on nurses.

Mr.

DeWitt is not sure what will happen.

And I'm not sur what the hospitals can give up.

At this point.

To, To satisfy the speaker.

You know, they kind of cross the lin with, with starting these ads.

If the hospitals do not back off the T ads against those Republicans, does the speaker back off the mandatory overtime bill for nurses?

His members are under assault because of his behavior, last year.

And, if he doesn't follow through on the threat that makes him look even weaker.

Knowing speaker Hall, he's not happy right now, is he?

I would assume he is not.

No.

I mean, the walls are kind of closing in right no.

With the speake taking on a powerful lobby group and that group taking on the speaker.

The outcome will determine who's most powerful.

So, Simon, this is a classic example.

If you mess around wit the speaker, fill in the name, you're going to have problems.

Yeah.

And it's a classic example of the way Lansing works.

Right, is that we have powerful special interest groups.

And if you do legislation that runs off all their interests, you spend millions of dollars to try to, you know, ensure that your political objectives can't happen.

Wouldn't it be a storyline if the Michigan Hospital Association to determine control of the Michigan House?

I think so, and I think that they're a there's the stakes are ramping up on both sides.

Right.

And this is a situatio where the hospitals saw a lane.

This is a, a good politica year nationally for Democrats.

So there is a path potentially for some of those competitive seats to be taken by Democrats.

And the hospitals are looking at this map and saying, well, you know, we could continue to try to work with this guy who has made it clear tha he doesn't like us very much, or we could try to just topple him.

And it's a it's a high stakes game.

If they lose, then they're in trouble.

But and one interesting question, I want to know what the one big beautiful bill, and the changes that are coming.

Hospitals need a partner in government to try to weather some of these cost issues, that they're going to be Medicaid stuff.

Yeah.

Yes.

And, but of course, this is also health care.

Affordability is a big issue right now.

Democrats are the marquee candidate is sayin that we need Medicare for all.

But right now we have the hospital association.

The hospital industry in Michigan are basically making the bet that they've go a better partner in government in Democrats than they do in Republicans.

I think that, Matt Hal is not someone who's afraid of, you know, shirking norms in Lansing.

And I think that this is a fight that I don't know if he's going to be backing down from.

Hospitals, a lot of that money can make a huge difference handling these, some of these smaller races.

And so, I don't know, I'm, I'm.

I'm watching this.

Pull up a chair, pull up a chair.

And at the end of the thing, we'll find ou who the most powerful person is.

Thanks to all of you for showing up.

Thank you for watching.

Next week, more off the record right here on this public TV station.

Until then.

Be good.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in par by Bellwether Public Relations, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

Learn more at bellwether pr.com.

For more off the record, visit Cork.

Michigan public television stations have contributed to the production costs of off the Record.