Thanks for tuning in.

Scott Ellis is with us.

He represents the bar owners in Michiga fighting a minimum wage battle.

New polling data in the Michiga presidential race and the U.S. Senate contest around the table.

Craig Mauger, Zoe Clark and Colin Jackson sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the Record.

production of Off the Record is made possible, in part by Martin Waymire, a full service strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at martinwaymire.com And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Thank you very much.

Welcome back to off the record.

New polling data.

I believe we get new polling that people don't like it when we cover the horse race.

But I want to say this.

We use the horse race numbers to actually get into issues.

So let's start with you.

Your poll, I thought the lead was Miss Harris has got no bounce out of the convention.

I think that was significant.

I we led with other angles that this is essentially a toss u and it's going to be a toss up, it looks like, for the next two months.

No one's pulling away here.

There is some consideration among Democrats that they would get a new candidate and this new candidate, Kamala Harris, would eventually pull away from Donald Trump.

There are no signs of that happening right now.

She was in our last poll in July.

She was slightly ahead by less than one percentage point.

Now he's ahead by one percentage point.

All of that means, you know, they're essentially tied unde the rules of how polling works in the margin of error.

We don't want to get into all of that.

But this is a tied race every little move, every little move is going to change and potentially alter the outcome of this.

Yeah, this is a race like we like to say, by the inches, not yards anymore.

It's, you know, more reasons why we saw Kamala Harris in Michigan on Monday Joe Biden in Ann Arbor Friday.

We're going to continue to see Donald Trump.

J.D.

Vance, Walz.

I mean, every single person is going to start needing to pay, you know, residency tax here in Michigan.

And it is because it is so close, we should say, you know, swing states are showing this to new polling this week in Pennsylvania, 47-47.

So it is close.

Yeah, And that's the thing.

I think what we saw back and we have it the July polling, you know, we saw that Trump didn't get a boos from his assassination attempt.

I think what we're seeing now with Harris coming out of the convention, not seeing that same boost I think that's also interesting.

And it just goes to show how calcified people really are in their beliefs, in their political mindsets, and that the kind of that squishy middle, the independent voters, the ones who are the swing voters, it's a lot fewer and far between than in past years and in past races.

And again, like you said, it's a game of inches, not feet, not yards.

And do you hear that about football all the time?

We're back to football season, but I think it's Apt to as well for politics.

So why is it tied?

I think it's tied because we're an extremely divided state and and no one in this presidential race, unlike Governor Whitmer two years ago in the governor's race, no one has been able to reach across or even reach to the middle and figure out how to talk to those people.

I set out one of my story idea for the week about the polling was I'm going to talk to those undecided voters and see where they're at in this.

And it wasn't that interesting of a stor once I started looking into it, because there aren't that many of them.

And the ones that are there are basically like I hate both of these candidates and that's not the fun of a story.

We call this a double haters, right?

Which we used to talk about is sort of the Trump-Biden.

But it really just seems it's sort of like a plague on both our houses For some of these.

They hate the system.

They hate the system They hate where the parties are.

They like Robert Kennedy a little bit.

And now he's part of the system because he's endorsing Donald Trump.

They don't know where to go.

I don't see how one of these candidates convinces them.

Back to this polling and independents, though, what's really interesting in your Detroit News poll is, you know, you guys also looked at th Rogers/Slotkin race, right where Slotkin is really pulled ahead if you look at these polls.

But really, she has a reall this is what's interesting about this is when you look at independents, her favorables among independents are higher than Kamal Harris's are among these groups.

And I thought that was really, really interesting.

Let's go back and look at who these people are.

The New York Times had a great piece on identifying 80% of the uncommitted.

First of all, 13% are black, 7% Hispanic, 58% white.

No surprise there.

But here's the number Under the age, younger voters, male, 51%, no college, 63%.

These are bad numbers for Democrats.

I think there's a lot in these numbers that should cause them pause.

And I'm sure you've been doing this, too, and everyone at this table I was talking t some of the Michigan Democrats.

They're extremely confident there is a difference between the confidence that they're speaking and what these numbers show.

The numbers show a pure toss up and the Democrats just believe they're going to win this, but they're still living off the high of getting rid of Joe Biden.

I think that's part of it.

I think they're living off the high of 2022, 2020, 2018.

The candidate has warned everybody, even if we're ahead in the polls, don't remember Hillary Clinton.

How far advance was she in Michigan?

She was going to win Michigan.

She's going to win the whole the whole thing thing about Michigan is that when there is a high turnout election and this has been proven time and time again, if both sides turn out, there are usually more Democrats here than there are Republicans and Democrats win.

That's a major difference fro 2016 Democrats didn't turnout.

It looks like they're excited to vote this year.

Well, Czuba says he has the enthusiasm meter.

Okay.

We love taling to Rich Czuba about his enthusiasm meter.

And he thinks the Democrats are pinning the needle.

Yeah, And I mean, I think to some extent that's true.

But I think a lot of that has to do with what we were talking about, that there was just such enthusiasm among Democrats when Joe Biden decided to step down, that there was this sort of breath of fresh air.

And, you know, Democrats will not all say it on the record, but off the record, lawmakers down ballot folks are like, whew.

So I think some of that enthusiasm is just for the change of course, rather than necessarily you know, this sense that like, oh, maybe there's a possibility we can win.

So I was just going just to add to that, though, I think what Harris gets you is back in the race, I think when Biden was the top of the ticket, we got a chance to know So you're saying, we've got a chance.

Yeah, it's not that's the joy that you're seeing.

You know, that's the enthusiasm.

It's just getting back in the race from being way out on the sidelines and feeling behind.

And then going bac to the football metaphor, right.

It's like when the game's a little closer, you suddenly start paying more attention.

Now we're happy the Democrats are happy to be tied.

I think that's working.

Bringing the young people back into the fold was an important thing because it was clearly sitting in our hands with Mr. Biden or did my reading that wrong?

No, I think that's true.

And I think that, like Colin said this is a lifeline to Democrats.

They have a chance to win Michigan now.

They can't misread the chance they have to win in terms of this idea that, hey we're going to have a blue wave.

There are no signs of a blue wave in the current polling that we're seeing.

Yes.

Elissa Slotkin is beating Mike Rogers substantially, but I think that speaks to the fact that Donald Trump i the pivot point of all of this.

When Donald Trump is on th ballot, Michigan looks different from when he's not on the ballot There's voters in this state that Donald Trump speaks to, that no other candidate, even someone trying to do a Donald Trump impersonation, can speak to it.

When Donald Trump is on there, there's a different turnout operation.

Just look at your mailbox right now.

For a lot of people in Michigan, you're getting tons of mailers from the Michigan Republican Party that's flowing through the Trump campaign.

They actually have an operation going on that they did not have in 2020.

Slotkin her numbers that is beyond the margin of error.

But if she can do this, why can't Miss Harris?

Well, that's what's so interesting, right?

When you're actually looking at the poll from the Detroit News again, is this idea that Slotkin seems to be shoring up independents in a way that that Kamala Harris just has not been able to do yet.

And I think that's suddenly where you're going to have to see folks like Tim Walz coming in and trying to work on some of the voters, Labor voters who, you know, used to just sort of steadfastly go to Democrats.

And then some of that wa the shock in '16 going to Trump, then going to Biden back to Biden in 2020.

And we got to see what's going to happen now in '24.

Why does Mr. Trump go to Potterville?

Because he needs people to vote for him.

It's the same thing Craig was saying, you know, we got to shore up the vote Potterville, because first voters like small town Americans are saying the same thing.

In '16.

When he went to Diamondale, I remember when I was running around this table and we all went, why is he going to Diamondale all day and heard that that was a viral moment from the campaign where clips got played on CNN and that were in cable new when he talked to black voters and said, vote for me, What do you have to lose?

Yeah, that was yeah, two two sides of that coin.

I mean, let's not read too much into the stops he's making right now because he's going to make a dozen more stops here and he's going to be all over the place by the time this is over.

Number two, he's trying to reach thos voters who may or may not vote in every election.

That's what his whole campaign is about right now.

The people who are not dedicated voters, how do how do they get those?

Occasionally Republicans, the evangelicals, hunters, those are the people when I'm talking to people within the Republican Party, they say that's who we're targeting right now, those people that don't always vote how do we get them to turnout?

So why does Mr. Kenned want to get back on the ballot?

No, he doesn't want to.

He wants to get off the ballot.

He is like, I am not running.

Do not vote for me.

Don't even think about it.

And some judges here in Michigan this week are like, oh no, you're on the ballot, buddy.

He wants to get off the ballot because he's worried it's going to siphon votes away from the former president, Donald Trump, who Kennedy endorsed.

So some people will vote on Election Day and his name's on the ballot and they won't know he's off the ballot?

Shocker.

So we'll know he's off the ballot.

And there are people that will vote for him as a protest vote against the two candidates.

He got 10% in some of the polls, yeah, there are a lot of I mean, this alone this issue alone could have a major impact.

It could decide the election.

It could, but any of these things could decide the election.

That's how close it is.

But I want to make a point o this that I think is forgotten.

People will say on social media, he wants off the ballot, why won't they let him off the ballot?

Well, there's something called the Natural Law Party.

Robert F Kennedy went to them and said, I want to be your nominee.

And they made some agreement.

You can be our nominee.

You get on the ballot.

He was completely craven, we should say about.

Yes.

Now, should he be able t turn around and tell this party, I no longer want to represent you on the ballot You get kicked off the ballot.

And all of this determines whether the natural law Party gets ballot access going forward.

So this is about more than the presidential race.

This is about political parties and and what their ability and the legality around this is to be on the ballot into the future.

And the implications.

Because think abou the gamesmanship that you could then see.

You could see candidates suddenly stepping up, you know, these small conventions and then waiting till the very last minute, dropping out and screwing up.

And what about Cornel West.

He gathered signatures.

So it's different.

He's an independent.

Brewer wants to take him off the ballot.

That's true.

That's true.

It's a little bit different because that's a legal battle over whether he filed the paperwork correctly.

And he is not representing a larger group of people on the ballot.

He's representing someone who signed a petition for him, particularly, ironically enough, I believe, in other states, Cornel West, maybe on the natural law candidate in other states and other states, but here is an independent.

He got the petition.

So the Democrats obviously were afraid tha he takes worlds away from Miss Harris Is that what this is all about?

It's a game of inches.

Brewer's not just arguing for the sake of making an argument.

And the Republican there are Republican and linked people arguing to keep him on the ballot as well as Jill Stein.

Yeah, right there.

And there is going to be a partisan lens to this, the Robert F Kennedy issue that we're now playing out.

And that tells you how close this race is, that everyone is spending lots of mone hiring the best lawyers they can to fight over this stuf because everybody remembers 2016 when the Stein campaign and others got enough votes to make up the difference between Hillary and Trump and 2000 with Ralph Nader and Al Gore.

You know, yes it is a significant fact because the average person at home just looks at this.

This is all very confusing, but this is part of the jigsaw puzzle which is going on here in Michigan.

Yeah.

And I think learning from past elections the elections you've mentioned, there is a massive there's going to be over the next two months, a massive fight over every minor election rule of this race.

And it's all going to point to the fact that there's a lot of people that think this is going to come down to potentially a few thousand votes in Michigan, and they're all trying to position themselves.

So they have the best argument to win whatever plays ou after this election.

It goes bac this is about inches, not yards.

Stay tuned.

All right.

Let's call in our gues and talk about the minimum wage All right.

So belly up to the bar there, kid.

Thanks for doing off the record.

So let's cut to the chase.

Do you have any assurances, implied or otherwise that the speaker of the House, the Senate majority leader or the governor will give you the time of day to change what's going on and you start off right away?

Don't you?

Let's cut to the chase?

You know, I have no assurances, none whatsoever.

Have you asked for them?

Absolutely.

But when I've gotten a Zippo, no.

What I've gotten actually is, is we definitely want to talk and we're open to listening.

And they have been we've bee working this for several years.

We you know, the courts have ruled, okay.

They have ruled.

We have to accept that an injustice is what it is.

And I believe in the court system.

Do I think that it was right or wrong?

That's a different story.

But we accept it.

And we have been talking and our whole position is the tipped credit was whatever he calls it, but the ability not to put all of that instant payroll out of the back of the small business.

So the legislature has been very open.

So they are willing.

And are they talking to you?

Yeah, we've had a ton of meetings and is a compromise emerging.

I don't know.

What does your gut tell you.

You know, my gut is I think people do the right thing.

You know, I think the more I think sometimes you're going to run the clock on you.

Well, we know there's a clock ticking, right.

And we know tha they're going to be in session one day this month and on the House side.

And that at least on the books right now in that, you know, December, right.

As you guys were talking a few minutes ago, everything's about the election right now.

Right.

The focus is on the election.

I mean, so if you're a betting man, whether it be money or, I don't know, beverage of someone's choice, does this end up happening that in lame duck?

I if I had to bet that was if anything is going to happen, I have to make sure you know there's no assurances it was I think it will be later in the year.

Yes, I do.

I think it'll be after after the election.

I think it's not because of the topic, it's because they are focused.

And I said, you're listening, you guys.

The numbers are very tight and you have a house that's a one seat majority.

And there's a lot on the line here everywhere.

So I think I think that right now it's like, look, we have one session day.

I think there are some things they need to get done.

I think, you know, school safety can be something that needs to be get done before before the session is over, before the election.

And then when you sit down and focus on something like this, what are you you know, I sit back and look at all of this.

And one of the thoughts that keeps coming to my mind is the Democrats have the majorities.

They have a large progressive contingent in both caucuses.

What are the chances that they actually do anything on this tipped wage despite those facts?

I think even even progressives get it a lot.

You get remember, a lot of us I started out in the hospitality industry, right.

Including, you know, legislators and staffers who still some work in the hospitality industry because they want they like the flexibility of the hours, they like the tips, they like the cash they can bring in.

Right.

There's a lot to it.

You know, lot of single parents can work two or three days a week make good money on those tips.

And I'm home with my kids.

I'm at my kid's soccer game.

And so I think it's we're not trying to gut anything.

You know, it's not just it's also the time off.

It is.

We are trying to make something that's workable.

We lost in the courts.

It's the system the way it is.

I think now, if you get into ballot proposals, which I'd love you guys to talk about something, I can listen to you guys talk about that all day.

People don't realize what they're signing, and I think it's what looks good on paper.

Sounds goo standing on the street corner.

And then when you flesh it out, when it comes to statute, there are some things that need to be clean.

And those those fiscal impacts are not seen until until it's there.

And I think that's where they're looking at.

And so to your question, I think people are ope minded to listening regardless is in your conversations, just one follow up to this.

Have they said to you, we're not touching the minimum wage and the only thing we're willing to talk about is the tipped wage?

Yes.

So I think we know what we're not asking change minimum wage.

I think that right in these meeting and no, no, I want to make sure we're very clear that we are not.

If we are, we have we are fine with the minimum wage going.

We just don't want I don't think what people understand is servers make whateve the minimum wage is, regardless if they don't make it in tips the business has to make it up.

Okay, So that so we can use 62% of the tip to get them to that wage.

Right.

So no matter what, if it goes to $15, they're making $15.

And those tips on top of that, anything above us.

I think that's a lot of time for the public when they sign this.

Didn't realize they are actually they're not making three something an hour.

I think people are talking You hear a lot about the ballot proposal, especially on the side of those folk that wanted to keep how it was.

They make it the case that this would dramatically chang the tipping system in Michigan, that waiters and bartenders would make less money.

Do you see that realistically?

Do you see the tipping system going away, though, especially now when they kind of every time you go to the store, it seems like you're getting the screen turned around for two?

Well, it's funny you bring up I do think the general public does have, especially since COVID, when we all felt guilty.

And I'm glad we did it because those servers deserve it and other industries that now that is everything expands.

I mean you g you know, a coffee sho and maybe they're not actually waiting tables and you know, it's are they really making tip minimum wage?

Are they getting the regular minimum wage?

Is that on top?

Right.

I see that that the dilemma is so public does look at everything as a tip.

But if you talk to the servers in the industry, they want those tips they want to have.

It's a competitive position, right?

I can be a good server, make good money.

And so I think the other thing you're going to see and I could give you a stats, 89% of our members surveyed said they will raise prices instantly.

They have no choice.

I think what people forget, too, is when you raise a flat, raise it, make everything go out of the business.

Their payroll and competitors their payroll tax goes up, their work comp goes up, all those payroll liabilities instantly double and triple.

Well, you had played the Sky is Falling card.

You have predicted there would be bars closing left and right.

Yes.

And so hyperbole.

No, no.

In fact, I mean, I have.

Why wouldn't you say that.

Well, it's true.

But here's the thing.

So I talk to my member and there's a place in northern Michigan or north north in Lansing, here in Saint John's, that will tell you right now, I will instantly have to cover $300,000.

I don't have that net.

I don't have that net.

So I will layoff more than half my staff and I will have you come up to the bar to order your foo and you'll walk up and get it.

Will be getting rid of hospitality and services, what this industry is about.

And so and then I'll give you an example.

You guys all know I own a distillery here in Lansing.

I would have one person working.

I could afford it.

My margins weren't there on the tasting room alone.

We're not there.

And that's I believe me I'm not making a ton of money.

I'm not afraid of saying that.

Going back just for the tip wage again.

What we're just trying to keep track of here have other states done what could happen in Michigan and what has the outcome So five I've done it recently.

Minnesota's never had one.

I didn't find that out.

They haven't had one like 50 years, but their prices are extremely high.

California them have done it and you know, cities have done it and you've seen bars and people move out of there.

So we have five states that don't have a tipped wage or that have done this.

And then you have D.C. and I was in D.C. not too long ag for work and talked to a server.

She said, I will not come to D.C. anymore to work I'll just go work in Alexandria.

I don't want to come down here anymore because the tips are where I make my money and my flexibility in my schedule.

If not, I'll go to a regular office job or I'll go to another job out of this industry, because this industry is not an easy industry.

People are mean.

And so it's a tough industry to work in.

And to do that, you want that incentive based reward.

And you know, we talk to servers on a regular basis.

And what we're asking those we're not asking to change the wage.

We're asking not to put it 100% back on the backs of the business.

And that' what we'll be doing overnight.

So who are you fighting?

Who is your major opponent?

Obviously want fair wage.

You know, who's not out of Michigan, who funded this with over $1,000,000 for signatures and they're not even in Michigan.

Their director lives in Berkeley, California.

People have their beliefs and whatever, but at the same time, Who are they?

They're a mix.

I mean, I don't know.

I mean, I know Jane Fonda funds a lot to do to win fair wage.

I don't know who they actually are.

But, I mean, again, I'd love to hear you guys sit and talk about ballot proposals and the and how they work, because it's a funding of signatures.

And you've noticed in the last few years how those have been challenged and things have been found.

Let's talk about that.

Oh, sure.

I want to talk about that.

We're we're educate now in 2018, where were you on where is your association on the legislature doing what they did to adopt an amendment?

I can honestly say we were not in the room, but did you say you should adopt this?

No.

Our organization did not.

Did you tell them not to?

I didn't know about it.

You didn't know about it?

I did not know that this was the eventual plan.

I do know that we talk to them on a regular basis, saying, Hey, do something and adopt.

And I did not know about a change.

And and I'll be honest, even if I did, I would say right now I felt it was okay to do.

I know the Supreme Court ruled and we'll accept that.

I don't you know, we don't always agree whether it's right or wrong.

Right.

I mean, we have our opinion that I think when we read this and you look at it now, it looks like you can adopt and amendment within the same you know, within the same time frame or same legislature.

But now they're saying no.

Well, before adopting amend, before this 2018, I mean, there was a Frank Kelly had as attorney general for years before that had already said it was not okay.

And then it changed.

So, I mean, a little bit o this is and I'm going to use the public television appropriate screw around and find out.

Right.

I mean and so now here is the outcome.

It is.

And again, like I said, our organization who I can speak for right now, I can't speak for other organizations.

And, you know, we at that time were ther and we're crying the same cries we are now, please don't put this on us.

You know, we spent money to fight the ballot and, you know, we just didn't have enough, Right?

I mean, I'm not going to I there's just not enough out there.

Are your people upset enough to take this out on people running for the legislature in the House right now?

Yeah.

Oh, yeah.

Oh, yeah.

Why did you pause?

Because I had to think about you know, I had to think before I answer I had to think, you know about.

But I know businesses and, you know, Democrat and Republican business owners has and this has nothing to do with party.

And, you know, in defense of the current sitting legislature, they didn't do this right.

They'r now having to clean up the mess.

And so I know of Democratic and Republican and of course, businesses that are blowing up phones of legislators saying you don't realize this, if I can.

And again, I want to see what we got.

We don't want to gut do not want to gut.

How could they possibly sit on this till lame duck?

They could you know, their goose could be cooked.

You know what, you guys, the pundits.

And that's your question.

That's what you're hoping.

Why are yo are you all planning to pressure individual members, you know like a Jamie Churches in downriver could you see your guys groups going to her district or did someone asked you not to do that?

No, actually, what it is, is this is grassroots.

We want tru constituents to do their thing.

Okay.

And so there have been a series of events around the state.

There's another one coming up here in Lansing.

This has to be a grassroots true.

You know, this legislature is very good at listening their constituents more so than lobbyists and more so than associations.

They'll listen.

But they really it hits home with this current legislature when your constituents speak.

And you know what?

That's the way it should be, right?

So you're not going to hit individual members?

No, we're we'r we are letting the constituents and our members know we're educating all the legislators on our side, not on our side, whatever.

We're meeting with absolute opponents and educating, and we're just showin the impact that this will have.

But with that in mind, though, how badly do the optics play into this, though?

And how much of a challenge to the optics present of a Democratic legislature, the first Democratic trifecta in forever, now talking about potentially lowering people's wages?

Well, they're not going to lower wages.

So that's kind of a misnomer, right.

Again, people are that the minimum wage is going to go up regardless.

We're asking to keep in tip credits.

No, it's not lowering it It's actually keeping it' still going to increase on us.

So and I'm glad you're asking that.

So really, if you do that right now, we can use 62% of the tip to make them get to whatever the minimum state minimum wages.

That's all it is.

So instead of putting off putting in 100% on the back of the business now to pay, let's say, $15 an hour, it's going to b you can use that 62% of the tip they will still make They'll make the same or more.

That's where I think it's confusing, is they are going to make more money than the legislature does.

Something here.

All they're doing is not putting in 100%.

So what did you think of the governor going back to the Supremes?

And so you give us some clarity here.

You know, it's funny.

I read an article this morning and Brewer's it talking about and it was I think they're just looking for clarity.

I mean, it was very confusing.

You guys could use this better normally.

Was it a supreme dodge?

No, no, not at all.

No.

In fact, I think the court ruled with it's opinion.

Let me ask you that.

So when when a Supreme Cour rules on a law that is invalid, that law remains on the books until it's statutorily removed or changed, correct?

Well, this when they said, okay, you've got to go back to what you adopted, but do ABCD in go on and that it's like, wait a minute, ho do you get that in the statute?

How do you implement that.

So the request was legitimate request I think all of us in the whole industry, on all sides were like, how exactly this going to work when I saw that this morning, I'm like, that doesn't know this is a legitimate I want to get it right.

I didn't want another lawsuit.

We're long low on time.

But just a quick question on percentage.

What are the percent chances that they change the sick leave policy, do you think?

Because this is very complex, the sick leave I don't want say percent is not good at that.

What I am going to say, I think it's a good thing that they're going to make it where it's workable because it's it's very it's not workable.

And what we really wha we're asking for in this thing and this i I couldn't get hold of the show.

The fact that we would like to see really upfront is the time up front where they get it right away.

They use it for some rules.

Call us, let us know, don' use it in one minute increments.

That's all.

Quickly finally.

How many bars did you lose during COVID?

Oh, hundreds.

Hundreds.

And this and real quick this will be worse because there's no federal bailouts.

No state bailouts.

Thank you, sir.

It's good to see you.

Thank you, guys.

Keep us posted.

I will.

I appreciate being here Thanks to our great panel.

Yes.

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